000 AXNT20 KNHC 130540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight gradient between a strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia through Thursday morning, then pulse to minimal gale each night into the weekend. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwest from the coast of Africa near 05N10W and crosses the equator near 19W. The ITCZ is south of the equator. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the axis between 11W-14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the western panhandle of Florida to the Bay of Campeche. A ridge is across eastern Mexico and the NW Gulf behind the front. Strong northerly winds are S of 21N near the coast of Mexico. Moist southerly flow moving northward in the NE Gulf ahead of the front in response to a mid to upper level trough sliding eastward across the NE Gulf is producing widespread showers north of 25N east of the trough. The front will weaken overnight, with the frontal remnants slowly lifting back north as a warm front on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia. Water vapor imagery shows dry and stable atmospheric conditions across the basin. Patches of shallow trade wind showers are advecting westward east of 75W, including the Lesser Antilles. A strong ridge N of the area anchored by a 1036 mb high in the central Atlc extends across the northern half of the Caribbean, with the associated pressure gradient supporting fresh to strong trade winds east of 80W. Seas are 12-15 ft near Colombia and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere. Strong winds are also occurring through the Atlc passages, and are expected to continue through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface high pressure over the area is associated with a 1036 mb high centered over the N central Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong E-NE winds over most of the region, except close to the ridge axis north of 25N. Isolated trade wind showers are noted from 15N to 25N and between 40W and 60W. Shower activity should move across the Leeward Islands later tonight through Tue night. A cold front moving off the U.S. east coast will approach 30N Tue night, then become stationary across the central Atlantic Wed and Thu. Scattered showers are expected to develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary north of 30N through Tue night as an upper level trough shifts eastward from the NE Gulf. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW forecast waters by early Saturday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell