000 AXNT20 KNHC 121738 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 Corrected Atlantic Ocean Section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue to support gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. These conditions are expected continue through late this week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Overnight scatterometer data showed near to gale-force northerly winds over adjacent waters of Tampico, Mexico following a cold front that extends from southern Alabama to Tampico. These winds and associated building seas to 10 ft will start to decrease late this morning. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia, Africa near 05N09W continuing to 01N18W. The ITCZ begins near 01N18W and extends along 01S27W to the coast of Brazil near 05S36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm S of the axis between 11W-14W, and within 60 nm S of the axis between 15W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm S of the axis between 20W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 09Z, a cold front extends from Pensacola Florida to 27N91W to 24N94.5w to inland Mexico near Papantla. Strong high pressure building in behind the front is funneling fresh to near gale- force northerly winds over the western gulf waters, except for gale- force winds near Tampico, Mexico as was indicated by overnight scatterometer data. Moist southerly winds advecting northward over the gulf from the Caribbean in combination with a diffluent environment aloft continues to support scattered moderate isolated strong convection over the northern gulf waters N of 28N E of the front. This activity may be attended by strong gusty winds as quickly shifts eastward. Elsewhere, scattered to isolated showers are within 120 nm ahead of the front. Strong high pressure over the north Atlc continue to extends SW across the eastern half of the Gulf, thus providing with light to moderate E to SE winds ahead of the front. Fresh easterly winds are over the Straits of Florida. The cold front is forecast to reach from near the Florida Big Bend area to the western Bay of Campeche this evening where it will stall and weaken until dissipating Wednesday evening. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish late this afternoon or early evening, however fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to 10 ft will continue to follow the front through tonight and into early on Tue. Winds and seas will diminish Tue afternoon as a ridge develops over the southeastern United States. This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia. The GOES-16 low to mid-level water vapor imagery reveals generally dry and stable conditions continue across the basin. However, patches of shallow moisture continue to move across western Hispaniola, thus supporting cloudiness and possible passing showers. A strong ridge N of the area anchored by a pair of highs extends southward across the northern half of the Caribbean, with the associated pressure gradient supporting the continuation of fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central basin as indicated by latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the range of 12 to 18 ft near the Colombia coast and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere. Fresh to near gale-force are also occurring through the Atlc passages and will continue through mid week. Otherwise, little change is expected through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected Broad surface high pressure over the area is associated with a pair of strong high pressure centers anchored N of the discussion, one of 1038 mb at 35N48W, and the other of 1036 mb at 39W29W. The ridge is supporting fresh to strong E-NE winds over most of the basin, except over NW forecast waters N of 24N where E-SE winds are mainly moderate. A cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by Tue morning with scattered to isolated showers. The front then will stall before dissipating Thu morning. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW forecast waters by early Saturday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos/Aguirre