000 AXNT20 KNHC 120556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue to support gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. These conditions will continue through at least mid week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Latest scatterometer data indicate the presence of near to gale- force northerly winds over adjacent waters of Tampico, Mexico following a cold front that extends from southern Alabama to Tampico. These winds and associated building seas to 10 ft will start to decrease late this morning. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia, Africa near 05N09W continuing to 01N18W. The ITCZ begins near 01N18W and extends along 01S27W to the coast of Brazil near 05S36W. Scattered showers and tstms are from 0N to 05N between 0W and 17W and from 08S to 03N between 20W and 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Alabama near 30N88W SW to 25N93W to Tampico, Mexico followed by fresh to near gale-force northerly winds, except for gale-force winds near Tampico, Mexico as shown by latest scatterometer data. Low level moisture inflow from the Caribbean along with a diffluent environment aloft continue to support heavy showers and tstms over the NE Gulf N of 28N. High moisture behind the front continue to support patchy fog N of 26N between 91W and 95W. Vessels transiting this region should exercise caution due to low visibility. Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers are within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary. Strong high pressure over the north Atlc continue to extends SW across the eastern half of the Gulf, thus providing with light to moderate E to SE winds ahead of the front. Slightly stronger winds are noted off the Florida Panhandle likely associated with heavy showers occurring in that region. Fresh easterly winds are also noted in the Florida Straits. The front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche Mon evening where it will stall and weaken until dissipating Wednesday evening. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish later this morning, however fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to 10 ft will continue to follow the front today. Winds and seas will diminish Tue as a ridge develops over the southeast United States. This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia. Dry, stable conditions prevails across the basin as indicated by GOES-16 low to upper level water vapor imagery. However, patches of shallow moisture continue to move across western Hispaniola, thus supporting cloudiness and possible passing showers. A strong ridge N of the area anchored by a pair of highs extends south across the northern half of the Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central basin as indicated by latest scatterometer data. Seas are 12 to 16 ft near the Colombia coast and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere. Fresh to near gale-force are also occurring through the Atlc passages and will continue through mid week. Otherwise, little change is expected. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface ridging anchored north of the area by a pair of 1039 mb highs extends S across the basin. The ridge is supporting fresh to strong E-NE winds over most of the basin, except over NW forecast waters N of 24N where E-SE winds are mainly moderate. A cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by Tue morning with scattered to isolated showers. The front then will stall before dissipating Thu morning. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW forecast waters by early Saturday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos