000 AXNT20 KNHC 111203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 702 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressures over northwestern South America will continue to support gale-force winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia through the next week, mainly at night. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 05N10W and continues to 01S22W. The ITCZ begins near 01S22W and extends to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered showers are within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extending from the north-central Atlantic through the central Gulf supports moderate southerly winds, except for moderate to fresh winds in the north-central Gulf N of 26N and north of the Yucatan Peninsula to 23N. Upper level diffluent flow and moisture inflow from the Caribbean support scattered moderate convection within 50 nm off the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The moist southerly flow continue to support dense fog over the northwest Gulf N of 26N with 3 NM visibilities over offshore areas. A cold front is along the Texas coastline and will move off the coast later this morning. The front will reach from southeast Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas by this evening, and from the western Florida Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche by Mon evening, where it will stall and weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to 8 ft will follow the front Sun night and Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish into Tue as a ridge develops over the southeast United States. This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale-force wind conditions expected near the coast of Colombia. GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show deep layer stable, dry air across most of the basin, which is supporting generally fair weather conditions. Strong high pressure north of the area continues to support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, as noted in recent scatterometer satellite data. Seas are reaching 8 to 12 ft, except near the Colombia coast where seas will be up to 16 ft. The areal extent of the strong trade winds and associated seas will spread westward through mid week, including the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Otherwise, little change is expected. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface ridging anchored N of the area by a 1044 mb high near 43N47W and a 1038 mb high southwest of the Azores near 36N40W extends across the basin. The ridge is supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast flow over most of the SW N Atlantic, except for strong trade winds south of 23N with 8 to 10 ft seas. Farther east over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends along 45W from 18N to 27N. Scattered showers associated with it are from 17N to 25N between 38W and 48W. The surface trough weakens the gradient enough to support mainly moderate to fresh trade wind flow across the central tropical Atlantic, but seas remain 8 to 12 ft in easterly swell. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by Tue afternoon, followed by fresh northerly flow and building seas north of the Bahamas, then diminish through mid week as the front stalls and dissipates. Over the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh northeast winds dominate this region of the Atlc, except for strong winds north of the Cape Verde islands. The long duration and fetch of these strong winds support fully developed seas of 8 to 11 ft. Jet dynamics aloft is supporting a broad area of multi-level clouds with possible embedded showers between 20W and 43W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/NR