000 AXNT20 KNHC 101732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1231 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressures over northwestern South America will continue to support gale-force winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia this weekend. These conditions will materialize during the late night and early morning hours. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 06N11W and continues to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05S36W. Scattered showers are observed along the monsoon trough between 10W-13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure centered over the Atlantic, extends its ridge across northern Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf. This scenario supports a moderate return flow across the basin with locally fresh winds in the Straits of Florida. In the western portion of the basin, light to gentle southeast winds prevail. A surface trough extends from 29N96W to 19N94W. A diffluent flow aloft to the east of the trough supports scattered moderate convection mainly north of 24N 89W-95W. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the northwestern waters by Sunday afternoon, then extending from Mississippi SW to Veracruz Mexico on Monday morning where it will stall and dissipate by mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale-force wind conditions expected near the coast of Colombia. GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show stable, dry air across most of the basin, which is supporting generally fair weather conditions. CIRA LPW imagery show patches of shallow moisture across the basin that support isolated showers, especially across Hispaniola where a surface trough extends across the Windward Passage. Fresh to near gale-force east winds are in the central Caribbean, including the Windward and Mona passages. High pressure ridging is forecast to become better established to the north of the area, and as a result, strong trade winds are expected to continue east of about 80W through Sunday afternoon. These winds will extend further west to 85W through the middle of the upcoming week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface ridging anchored N of the area by a 1043 mb high in the north Atlantic and a 1039 mb high southwest of the Azores extends across the basin. A weakness in the ridge, is analyzed as a surface trough extending from 28N68W to 20N73W. Isolated showers are observed within 120 nm on either side of the trough axis. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to enter west Atlantic waters by early Wednesday morning. The front will then stall and dissipate by Thursday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA