000 AXNT20 KNHC 100555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1254 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue to support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia. These winds are expected to be strongest during the late night and early morning hours over the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic waters near 07N13W and continues to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from that last coordinate to 01N30W to 01S45W. Scattered heavy showers are near the Gulf of Guinea N of the Equator E of the prime meridian. Scattered showers are occurring from 4S to 10S between 25W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure centered in the NW Atlc extends a ridge axis across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf, thus supporting the continuation of moderate return flow in the eastern basin with locally fresh winds in the Straits of Florida. In the western basin, a reduced pressure gradient supports light to gentle SE flow. CIRA LPW imagery show low level moisture advection from the Caribbean Sea, which along with a diffluent environment aloft support scattered to isolated showers west of 91W and within 175 nm off the coast of Mississippi. High humidity in the NW Gulf supports dense fog N of 26N W of 93W and potentially within 175 nm off the coast of Mexico. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the northwestern waters by Sunday afternoon, extend from Mississippi SW to Veracruz Mexico Monday morning where it will stall and dissipate through Wednesday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. GOES-16 water vapor imagery continue to show stable, dry air across most of the basin, which is supporting generally fair weather conditions. CIRA LPW imagery show patches of shallow moisture across the basin that may support isolated passing showers, especially across Hispaniola where a surface trough races west. Fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds are in the central Caribbean, including the Windward and Mona passages. High pressure ridging is forecast to become better established to the north of the area, and as a result, strong trade winds are expected to continue east of about 80W through Sunday afternoon. These winds will extend further west to 85W through the middle of the upcoming week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface ridging centered N of the area by a 1038 mb high in the NW Atlc and a 1039 mb high SW of the Azores extends S across the SW N Atlc, central and eastern basin, generally supporting fair weather. A weakness in the ridge, is analyzed as a surface trough extending from near 28N64W SW to inland central Hispaniola. Isolated passing showers are possible within 120 nm either side of the trough axis. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to enter SW N Atlc waters by early Wednesday morning. The front will then stall and dissipate by Thursday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos