000 AXNT20 KNHC 100006 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0706 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue to support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia. These winds are expected to be strongest during the late night and early morning hours over the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic waters near 05N09W and extends to 01N18W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins continuing to 05S34W. Numerous heavy showers are near the Gulf of Guinea N of the Equator E of 3E. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 4S to 09S between 24W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front is dissipating over the northern Florida Peninsula, however there is no convection associated with it. Weak surface ridging is across the basin providing moderate return winds E of 90W and light to gentle winds W of 90W. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a surface trough along 28N95W to the central Bay of Campeche. The trough is supporting scattered showers W of 90W while upper level diffluence supports scattered showers in the NE Gulf. Looking ahead to the weekend, the next cold front is expected to enter the northwestern waters by late Sunday, and surface winds will turn southerly and southwesterly ahead of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Generally quiet weather continue across the Caribbean. Satellite images indicate that only patches of clouds are scattered across the region. This fair weather is supported by widespread dry air aloft, as evident in water vapor images. Fresh to strong trade winds are occurring mainly in the central basin pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia as described in the special features section. High pressure ridging is forecast to become better established to the north of the area this weekend, and a result, strong trade winds are expected to continue east of about 80W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is in the SW N Atlantic, which enters the discussion area near 30N70W and extends to the northeast coast of Florida. Isolated showers are likely within about 90 n mi either side of the front. This boundary is expected to weaken later today and Saturday. Behind the front, a strong 1035 mb high pressure center is shifting eastward and is now located just off the mid-Atlantic coast. A weak surface trough is producing isolated showers near its axis, which is located from 29N63W to 24N65W. Farther east, an upper- level trough over the central Atlantic is producing a large swath of moisture aloft from 10-20N between 25W-45W, but most of this is only in the form of cloudiness. Otherwise, a 1039 mb high located near 37N34W dominates the pattern and is producing a large area of moderate to strong trade winds across most of the east and central Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos