000 AXNT20 KNHC 091718 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1218 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue to support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia. These winds are expected to be strongest during the late night and early morning hours over the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic waters near 05N09W and extends to 03N14W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins. The ITCZ axis dips below the equator around 24W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring between the equator and 4N between 9W-13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front is dissipating over the north-central and northeastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring in association with this boundary, generally north of 25N between 84W-89W. Over the western portion of the area, a surface trough has been stationary with its axis located about 120 n mi off the coast of Mexico and Texas. More significant shower activity and a few thunderstorms are occurring near this feature, aided by an upper-level jet. Fair weather exists across the remainder of the area, with only isolated showers expected. Scatterometer data and surface observations indicate that winds are from the east and mainly in the 10-15 kt range across the area, except in the Straits of Florida where easterly winds are stronger. Looking ahead to the weekend, the next cold front is expected to enter the northwestern waters by late Sunday, and surface winds will turn southerly and southwesterly ahead of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Generally quiet weather continue across the Caribbean. Satellite images indicate that only patches of clouds are scattered across the region. This fair weather is supported by widespread dry air aloft, as evident in water vapor images. Fresh to strong trade winds are occurring area-wide, and they are pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia as described above. High pressure ridging is forecast to become better established to the north of the area this weekend, and a result, strong trade winds are expected to continue east of about 80W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A front has stalled over the western Atlantic, which enters the discussion area near 32N67W and extends to the northeast coast of Florida. Scattered showers are likely within about 180 n mi north of the front. This boundary is expected to weaken later today and Saturday. Behind the front, a strong 1035 mb high pressure center is shifting eastward and is now located just off the mid-Atlantic coast. A weak surface trough is producing isolated showers near its axis, which is located from 29N63W to 24N65W. Farther east, an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is producing a large swath of moisture aloft from 10-20N between 25W-45W, but most of this is only in the form of cloudiness. Otherwise, a 1039 mb high located near 37N34W dominates the pattern and is producing a large area of moderate to strong trade winds across most of the east and central Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cangialosi