000 AXNT20 KNHC 091203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue to support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia. These winds are expected to be strongest during the late night and early morning hours during the next few days. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 05N09W and extends to 02N15W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins. The ITCZ axis dips below the equator around 23W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring between the equator and 3N between 9W-13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, westward to 25N90W and then south-southwestward into the Bay of Campeche. A trough lies near the coast and Texas along 96W. The latest satellite images show multi-layer clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms exist elsewhere S of 25N between 90W-95W. Otherwise, scattered cloudiness and isolated showers are occurring across the remainder of the region. Looking ahead, the stationary front will gradually dissipate this weekend. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast by late Sunday, and then become stationary from near the Mississippi Delta to the western Bay of Campeche on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Mid- to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the NW Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize. Broken to overcast low-level clouds and possible isolated showers are seen N of 15N and W of 83W, S of 15N between 71W-74W and over portions of the eastern Caribbean. These clouds and showers are moving quickly westward in strong trade wind flow. The ongoing strong trade wind flow will continue over the south- central Caribbean through Sunday, and nocturnal pulses to minimal gale-force along the coast of Colombia are forecast during the next couple of days. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including the north- central passages through today. These conditions will persist through Monday night. Strong trade winds and building seas are forecast across the tropical waters north of 11N through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 32N69W southwestward to near 29N75W, where it becomes stationary and extends to near Stuart, Florida. Isolated showers are occurring north of 28N west of 70W. Similar activity lies near a surface trough that lies from 22N60W to 29N62W. Strong high pressure is building eastward across the region to the west of the front. Farther east, a nearly stationary 1039 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 36N34W with a ridge axis stretching southwestward across the central Atlantic to the east of the front discussed above. Looking ahead, the frontal boundary over the western Atlantic is forecast to stall and weaken from Bermuda to southeastern Florida later today. The remnants of the front should lift northward across the waters on Saturday. Another cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by late Monday. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected to continue along the northern coast of Hispaniola and near the Windward Passage through tonight. A tightening pressure gradient should support strong trade winds across the waters S of 23N by late Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre/Cangialosi