000 AXNT20 KNHC 090605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough axis passes through the coastal border sections of Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 05N08W, and it extends to 02N19W where latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and dips to below the equator at 23W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm S of the axis between 08W-12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 03Z, a stationary front extends from near Fort Myers Florida southwestward to 25N86W, to 23N91W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche and to inland Mexico at 19N93W. A trough just W of the front extends from 20N93W northwestward to 22N95W. Latest satellite imagery satellite imagery shows abundant deep layer moisture denoted as multilayer clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms underneath them concentrated over the SW Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along with patches of rain are elsewhere S of 26N between 89W-94W. Isolated showers are elsewhere over the central gulf and over some sections of the eastern gulf. Strong high pressure, further supported by a 1026 mb high center over eastern Mexico near Ciudad Mante, continues to surge southward from Texas to along the coast of Mexico and toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The stationary front will slowly dissipate through the upcoming weekend. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast late on Sunday, and then become stationary from near the Mississippi Delta to the western Bay of Campeche on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the NW Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize. Broken to overcast low-level clouds and possible isolated showers are seen N of 15N and W of 83W, S of 15N between 71W-74W and over portions of the eastern Caribbean. These clouds and showers are moving quickly westward in strong trade wind flow. Strong trade wind flow will continue over the south-central Caribbean through Sun, except for nocturnal pulses to minimal gale- force along the NW coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including the north-central passages through today. These conditions will persist through Mon night. Strong trade winds and building seas are forecast across the tropical waters north of 11N through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 03Z, a cold front extends from near 32N71W southwestward to near 28N77W, where it becomes stationary to inland Florida near Stuart. Isolated showers moving westward are noted west of 71W, and from 14N to 30N between 41W-62W. Isolated small thunderstorm cells are within 15 nm of a line from 22N52W to 26N53W to 29N53W. This activity is being aided by broad central Atlantic mid to upper level trough. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the southeastern United States. A nearly stationary 1041 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 36N35W with a ridge axis stretching southwestward to 32N52W and to near 31N62W. High pressure covers the area E of the front, while a new area of strong high pressure is building across the far northern boundary of the NW waters in the wake of the cold front. A surface trough that recently formed along the NE Florida will lift northward today. The aforementioned cold front will shift eastward and stall from Bermuda to SE Florida early today. Remnants of the front will lift northward across the waters that are to the north of the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast late on Mon. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected to continue along the northern coast of Hispaniola and the Atlantic Ocean approach to the Windward Passage through Friday. A tightening pressure gradient then will support strong trade winds across all the waters S of 23N by late Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre