000 AXNT20 KNHC 090003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough axis passes through the coastal border sections of Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 05N08W, and it extends to 01N20W where latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and dips to below the equator at 23W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm S of the axis between 07W-09W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm N of the axis between 11W-12W, and within 30 nm S of the axis between 11W-12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 21Z, a cold front extends from near Naples Florida southwestward to 22N86W, then to 22N90W and to 22N92W, where it becomes a stationary front to the eastern Bay of Campeche and to inland Mexico at 19N92W. Latest satellite imagery satellite imagery shows abundant deep layer multilayer clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms underneath them concentrated over the SW Gulf. Scattered showers and patches of rain are elsewhere W of 89W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the far N Central Gulf near the coast of Louisiana while isolated showers are over the eastern gulf waters. Strong high pressure is surging southward from Texas to along the coast of Mexico and toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The current cold front will stall from SW Florida, to 23N95W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico tonight and dissipate by Fri. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast late on Sunday, and then become stationary from near the Mississippi Delta to the western Bay of Campeche on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the NW Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 22N southward between 90W and 95W, and associated with the current cold front that is in the Gulf of Mexico. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 15N to 22N between 80W and 96W, covering parts of the NW Caribbean Sea, interior sections of Central America, and parts of the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast low-level clouds and possible isolated showers are seen N of 15N and W of 83W, S of 15N between 71W-74W and over portions of the eastern Caribbean. These clouds and showers are moving quickly westward in strong trade wind flow. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 08/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 3.31 in Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe. Strong to near gale force trades will prevail across the south- central Caribbean Sea this week, except for nocturnal pulses to minimal gale-force along the NW coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including the north-central passages through Fri. These strong conditions then will spread eastward across the eastern Caribbean Sea waters, and persist through Monday night. Strong trade winds and building seas are forecast across the tropical waters north of 11N through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 32N76W southwestward to inland Florida near Fort Pierce. Isolated showers are possible to the NW of a line from 32N60W, to the coast of Florida near 27N80W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the SE U.S.A. A nearly stationary 1038 mb high pressure center is near 36N35W. The aforementioned cold front will shift eastward and stall from Bermuda to southeast Florida early on Friday. Remnants of the front will lift northward across the waters that are to the north of the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast late on Mon. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected to continue along the northern coast of Hispaniola and the Atlantic Ocean approach to the Windward Passage through Friday. A tightening pressure gradient then will support strong trade winds across all the waters S of 23N by late Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT/Aguirre