000 AXNT20 KNHC 081205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W, and it curves through 06N15W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to 02N30W, and to 03S35W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N southward between 38W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 22N. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that runs from the coast of Florida near 25N to the Yucatan Peninsula. A cold front extending southwest from the Florida Panhandle to Northeast Mexico will stall from southwest Florida to 23N95W to the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Remnants of the front will lift north across the northwest gulf waters on Fri, and then drift northeast across the northern coastal plains on Fri night into Sat. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast late Sun, and stall from the Mississippi Delta to the western Bay of Campeche on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 15N to 22N between 86W and 96W, covering parts of the NW Caribbean Sea, interior sections of Central America, and parts of the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 14N southward between 60W and 71W, and elsewhere, spread across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 08/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 3.31 in Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe. Strong to near gale force trades are expected across the south- central Caribbean Sea this week, except for nocturnal pulses to minimal gale-force along the northwest coast of Colombia. Fresh- to-strong trade winds are forecast elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including in the north-central passages through Friday. These strong conditions then will spread eastward across the eastern Caribbean Sea waters, and persist through Monday night. Strong trade winds and building seas are forecast across the tropical waters north of 11N through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between 20W and the SE U.S.A. A 1039 mb high pressure center is near 37N33W. A dissipating cold front passes through the Western Sahara near 23N16W to 21N20W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast today and stall from Bermuda to southeast Florida early on Friday. Remnants of the front will lift northward across the waters that are to the north of the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast late on Monday. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected to continue along the northern coast of Hispaniola and the Atlantic approach to the Windward Passage through Friday. A tightening pressure gradient then will support strong trade winds across all the waters that are to the south of 23N by late Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT