000 AXNT20 KNHC 080603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA. A cold front extends from a 1010 mb low located at 31N09W, to across eastern Morocco and to across the eastern and central sections of Western Sahara, and out over the far eastern Atlantic near 24N20W. Broken to scattered low clouds are noted on either side of the front, with possible isolated showers. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough axis extends through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to 03S35W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm S of the axis between 19W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 03Z, a cold front extends from just W of Apalachicola to 27N90W to 25N95W to inland Mexico near Tampico. A pre-frontal trough extends from just E of Apalachicola to 28N86W to 26N88W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 30 nm E of the cold front N of 29N. Isolated showers are along the front S of 29N. Water vapor imagery shows extensive mid and upper broken to overcast clouds moving from SW to NE over the NW and N Central Gulf. Areas of rain along with scattered showers are underneath these clouds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of the NW Gulf as well. High pressure is building southeastward behind the cold front over the far NW Gulf. An Ascat pass from 03Z last night highlighted NE 20-25 kt winds over the NW Gulf waters. The cold front is forecast to shift southeastward through tonight, then become stationary along 25N on Thu. Remnants of the front will lift northward across the northern Gulf waters on Friday and Saturday. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast late Sun. Strong northerly flow over the NW waters will shift southward along the coast of Mexico through today, and persist near Veracruz through early on Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Isolated showers are seen S of 20N W of 84W, and also from Nicaragua to Honduras, to Belize, and parts of Guatemala, in areas of westward moving scattered to broken low-level clouds. A small area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is concentrated over the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are also E of 75W in patches of low-level moisture moving quickly westward. Strong to near gale force trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean Sea, with nocturnal pulses to minimal gale-force along and near the NW coast of Colombia through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds are forecast elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including the north central passages through Fri. These conditions will spread eastward across the eastern Caribbean Sea and continue through Sat night. Fresh to locally strong trade winds, accompanied by large east swell, will continue across the tropical waters through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated showers moving westward are noted E of the Bahamas. Similar activity moving northwestward is N of 26N W of 71W, and between the Bahamas and Cuba. An elongated mid to upper level trough is along a position from 26N21W to 26N32W to 32N43W. Patches of low-level moisture moving westward with possible isolated are noted from 19N to 30N between 40W and 50W. The latest synoptic analysis reveals high pressure ridging extending from a 1040 mb high center, that is located well N of the area just to the SW of the Azores, southwestward through 32N55W and to near 29N79W. High pressure covers just about the entire basin, except in the far eastern portion near the cold front associated with the gale force winds occurring in the METEO-FRANCE high seas forecast area. The tail end of this front extends out over the eastern Atlantic from the Western Sahara to near 24N20W. This portion of the front is quickly dropping southward as it weakens. Broken to scattered low clouds moving west-southwestward in the strong NE flow around the eastern side of the Atlantic ridge are observed to the N of about 19N and E of 40W. Latest Ascat data depicted strong NE to E winds over this area of the Atlantic. The present Gulf of Mexico cold front will emerge off the NE Florida early this morning, then stall from Bermuda to SE tonight. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected across the tropical waters S of 22N through Fri. The pressure gradient along the southern periphery of strong N Atlantic high pressure will begin to tighten on Fri allowing for trades to increase significantly over the waters S of 23N going into Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre