000 AXNT20 KNHC 070932 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 432 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0900 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the next few days during the late night and early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N09W to 02N22W to 03N22W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ continues and dips to below the equator near 29W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of the axis between 25W-29W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line from 01N32W to 01N36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure extending from the western Atlantic stretches southwestward across northern Florida and to the N centraL Gulf. This feature presently controls the wind regime across the area. The buoys along with recent Ascat data indicate light to moderate return flow over the area. As of 09Z, a cold front has moved to just along the central Texas coast. Isolated showers are over portions of the eastern gulf, and Straits of Florida. The warm front will lift northward overnight as a cold front approaches eastern Texas, and moves out over the NW Gulf by early on Wed. Expect areas of dense fog to again form over portions of the NW Gulf and along the coastal section of the N central gulf tonight. The aforementioned cold front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft, mainly along the northern Gulf and off the coast of Mexico as the front reaches from central Florida to the SW Gulf by Thu evening. The front is forecast to lift back northward as a weak warm front over the western Gulf on Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details regarding gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun, with highest winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10-16 ft over much of the south-central and SW Caribbean, and up to 9 ft elsewhere. Stable environmental conditions are expected to prevail across the basin, however patches of shallow moisture may support brief passing isolated showers mainly E of about 72W. The current synoptic pattern will also support fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front enters the region through 32N62W to 29N66W, where it becomes a trough to 28N70W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted N of 29N between 64W-68W. The trough will dissipate by this evening. High pressure building behind the front will support fresh to locally strong E winds south of 24N in the approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu night. These winds in the SW N Atlc will expand northward to 25N during the weekend. A surface trough is analyzed along a position from near 30N60W to 25N66W to near 20N71W. Isolated showers are along and within 60 nm SE of the trough axis N of 27N. The portion of the trough S of 27N appears to be diffusing with time. A cold front is forecast to emerge off the SE United States coast early on Thu, and move across the NW waters of the discussion area during Thu. The front will then become stationary from near Bermuda to southeastern Florida by Thu night. The pressure gradient associated with high pressure that will build behind this upcoming cold front will induce fresh NE winds along with seas building to the range of 6-10 ft to the NW waters Thu night and Fri. Winds are forecast to diminish on Fri as the high pressure shifts eastward, and the western portion of the front lifts back to the N as a warm front. The Azores high pressure system extends a ridge west-southwestward across the central and eastern Atlc, where latest scatterometer data showed mainly moderate to fresh winds. Fresh to locally strong trades are expected to materialize over the waters S of 22N and E of the Bahamas as the gradient around the southern periphery of high over the Atlantic waters tightens. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre