000
AXNT20 KNHC 052355
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient 
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure 
in northwestern South America will continue to support gale-
force winds near the coast of Colombia the next few days during 
late night and early morning hours. Please read the latest NHC 
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 
     
The monsoon trough extends from coastal Liberia near 05N09W to 
03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W across the equator to the 
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. There is no significant convection 
associated with the convergence zone.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front snakes across the Gulf of Mexico between 25N 
and 27N from southern Florida to the Texas/Mexico border. Seas 
are 3 to 5 ft across the region. The front will dissipate and 
lift northward along the northern Gulf coast through early Tue. 
A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh 
to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft will follow 
the front, mainly off the coast of Mexico, as the front reaches 
from central Florida to the southwest Gulf by late Thu, then 
lift northward as a weak warm front over the western Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support strong 
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Wed, with highest 
winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 8 to 11 ft over much 
of the south central and SW Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. 
Mostly dry, stable conditions prevail across the basin. Patches 
of shallow moisture may support isolated passing showers south 
of Hispaniola. The current synoptic pattern will support fresh 
to strong winds off Colombia, the Windward Passage and in the 
lee of Hispaniola through Fri. High pressure building over the 
central Atlc will support fresh trades east of the Leeward and 
Windward Islands, accompanied by E-NE swell in excess of 8 ft. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N72W SW to near Ft Lauderdale FL 
with isolated showers NW of the front. Fresh to strong southerly 
flow is north of 29N east of the front to 65W with seas to 9 ft 
forecast through tonight. The front will stall from 29N65W to 
the Straights of Florida Tue, then dissipate Wed. High pressure 
will build behind the front, supporting fresh to locally strong 
E winds south of 22N the next few days. A surface trough north 
of Hispaniola will drift westward without much convection. The 
Azores high extends a ridge axis west-southwestward across the 
central and eastern Atlc, where latest scatterometer data show 
moderate to fresh winds. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell