000 AXNT20 KNHC 051747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1247 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient, between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to support gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia through the middle of the week, generally during the late night and early morning hours. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W and continues to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 0N28W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm N of the monsoon and the ITCZ between 16W and 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough off the eastern CONUS coast supports a cold front across central Florida entering the Gulf near 26N82W and continuing to 26N87W where it transitions to a stationary front. The stationary front extends from 26N87W to 26N91W to 27N95W to Brownsville, Texas. Platforms over the northwest Gulf continue to report some small areas of fog, however it should clear up later this afternoon as dry air continue to filter into the region behind the front. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the region. The front will dissipate as it lifts northward along the northern Gulf coast through early Tue. Another cold front will move into the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft will follow the front mainly off the coast of Mexico as the front reaches a position from central Florida to the southwest Gulf by late Thu before lifting northward over the western Gulf and weakening Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will continue to support gale force winds off the coast of Colombia at night through Wednesday. Seas during this period will be between 8 to 11 ft over much of the south central and southwest Caribbean, and generally 5 to 7 elsewhere in the basin. GOES-16 water vapor imagery show dry, stable conditions from low to upper levels across the basin. However, CIRA LPW imagery show patches of shallow moisture that may support isolated passing showers this afternoon as a fast- moving surface trough moves between Puerto Rico and Venezuela. The ongoing atmospheric pattern will continue to support fresh to strong winds off Colombia, the Windward Passage and in the lee of Hispaniola through Fri, pulsing to gale force off Colombia each night. High pressure building over the central Atlc will continue to support fresh trades east of the Leeward and Windward Islands, accompanied by NE to E swell in excess of 8 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 30N74W SW to near Cape Canaveral, Florida with isolated showers within 90 nm either side of the front. Fresh to strong southerly flow is north of 29N east of the front to 70W with seas to 9 ft forecast through tonight. The front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida this evening, stall from 29N65W to the Straights of Florida late Tue, then dissipate by mid week. High pressure will build behind the front, supporting fresh to occasionally strong E winds south of 22N by mid week. Farther east, a trough is analyzed north of western Puerto Rico drifting westward, however lacking convection. The Azores high, anchored by a 1038 mb high west of the islands, extends a ridge axis southward across the central and eastern Atlc where latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos