000 AXNT20 KNHC 051059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 559 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient, between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will continue to support gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia, mainly during the late night and early morning hours, through the middle of the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 02S38W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed from 03S to 01N between 32W and 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A few showers are lingering over the southeast Gulf ahead of a front reaching from the Florida Big Bend area to the central coast of Texas. The showers and thunderstorms will weaken and shift eastward through the early morning. Platforms over the northwest Gulf are reporting areas of fog with visibilities around 4 nm. This will clear up later this morning as drier air filters into the region behind the front. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the region. The front will dissipate as it lifts northward over the western Gulf through early Tue, ahead of another cold front moving into the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft will follow the front mainly off the coast of Mexico as the front reaches a position from central Florida to the southwest Gulf by late Thu before lifting northward over the western Gulf and weakening Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. High pressure north of the area is supporting gale force winds off the coast of Colombia, as verified by vessel 9HA3047 earlier. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over much of the south central and southwest Caribbean, and generally 5 to 7 elsewhere in the Caribbean. Recent buoy observations over the tropical Atlantic indicate NE to E swell and locally derived wind waves due to fresh trade wind flow have reached the Leeward and Windward Islands and may be pushing into exposed Atlantic passages. No significant convection is observed due to mainly zonal westerly flow aloft, but fast- moving trade wind showers are likely from the tropical north Atlantic west of 55W through the southwest Caribbean. The pattern will continue to support fresh to strong winds off Colombia, the Windward Passage and in the lee of Hispaniola through Fri, pulsing to gale force off Colombia each night. High pressure building over the central Atlc will continue to support fresh trades east of the Leeward and Windward Islands, accompanied by NE to E swell in excess of 8 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is moving off the northeast Florida coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted in advance of the front, as are fresh to strong southerly flow north of 30N. Recent buoy observations and altimeter satellite passes indicate 5 to 7 ft seas in open waters. The front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late today, stall from 29N65W to the Straights of Florida late Tue, then dissipate by mid week. High pressure will build behind the front, supporting fresh to occasionally strong E winds south of 22N by mid week. Farther east, a trough is analyzed north of the Leeward Islands drifting westward, followed by a large area of fresh easterly flow. Recent buoy observations and altimeter satellite data indicates seas of 8 to 11 ft across the central Atlantic, mainly in NE to E swell. No significant convection is observed although isolated trade wind showers are likely. Over the eastern Atlantic, no gale warnings are in effect south of 32N, but strong to near gale force winds are evident from the coast of Morocco to through the Cabo Verde Islands with seas 8 to 10 ft. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen