000 AXNT20 KNHC 050504 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1204 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient, between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will continue to support gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia, mainly during the late night and early morning hours, through the middle of the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to 02S30W, and 03S38W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N southward between 09W and 35W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through south central Georgia, through the Florida Big Bend, into the north central and eventually NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the upper Texas Gulf coast. A surface trough is within 60 nm to the E and SE of the cold front, from 92W eastward. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 24N to 28N from 85W eastward across Florida. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers have been moving from the Gulf waters across Florida from 26N northward, during the last few hours. A surface ridge extends from 26N74W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the Bahamas and NW Cuba, to 21N85W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 24N to 28N from 85W eastward across Florida. The precipitation is active, ahead of a cold front that is moving through the northern waters. The front will stall from South Florida to South Texas by late Monday, and then dissipate as it lifts northward on Tuesday, ahead of another cold front that will be moving into the northwest Gulf late on Wednesday. Fresh-to-strong northerly winds will follow the front mainly off the coast of Mexico as the front reaches a position from central Florida to the southwest Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. A surface trough is along 61W from 10N to 19N, across some of the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low-level clouds, that cover the area from the coast of Venezuela to 17N between 60W and 65W. A surface ridge extends from 26N74W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the Bahamas and NW Cuba, to 21N85W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of 14N74W 17N69W 23N63W, in areas of broken low-level clouds. High pressure north of the area will support fresh-to-strong winds off Colombia, the Windward Passage and in the lee of Hispaniola through Friday, pulsing to gale-force off Colombia each night. High pressure building in the central Atlantic Ocean will support fresh trade winds to the east of the Leeward Islands and Windward Islands, accompanied by NE to E swell in excess of 8 feet by early Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through southern Georgia, beyond the Florida Big Bend, into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N69W to 25N80W. A dissipating stationary front passes through 31N55W, to 27N70W. A surface trough is along 34N48W 32N51W 28N54W. rainshowers are possible from 24N northward between 50W and 70W, in areas of broken low level clouds. A surface trough is along 60W/61W from 20N to 28N. rainshowers are possible from 20N to 30N between 57W and 65W. Expect fresh to strong southerly wind flow north of 30N overnight, before the next cold front, that currently is passing through Georgia and Florida, that is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast through early Monday. The front will reach from 31N75W to 26N80W by early Monday morning, and extend from Bermuda to South Florida by early Tuesday, before stalling and then lifting north through the middle of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT