000 AXNT20 KNHC 050005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will continue to support gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W, mainly at night, through the middle of the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N08W to 05N15W and 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W, crossing the Equator along 26W, to 02S35W 03S45W, and 01S52W in Brazil. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N southward between 25W and 35W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the coastal plains of Louisiana, to the upper Texas Gulf coast, and continuing in Texas from 29N to 30N, to 100W. A surface trough passes through south central Georgia, to the Florida Big Bend, into the Gulf of Mexico near 27N89W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line 26n82W 22N97W. scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers have been moving from the Gulf waters across Florida from 26N northward, during the last few hours. A surface ridge extends from 27N74W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the Bahamas, to 25N90W in the Gulf of Mexico. A 1019 mb high pressure center is in Mexico near 21N101W. Southerly return flow dominates much of the Gulf region ahead of the current cold front. An area of showers with embedded tstms is over the NE Gulf ahead of the front associated with the pre- frontal trough. It is possible that winds and seas may be higher near tstms. The front will stall from South Florida to South Texas by late Mon, then dissipate as it lifts northward Tue ahead of a another cold front moving into the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front mainly off the coast of Mexico as the front reaches a position from central Florida to the southwest Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia, the Windward Passage and in the lee of Hispaniola through Fri, pulsing to gale force off Colombia each night. High pressure building over the central Atlc will support fresh trades east of the Leeward and Windward Islands, accompanied by NE to E swell in excess of 8 ft by early Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N55W, to 30N60W, and to 27N70W. The front continues to dissipate. A surface trough is along 32N53W 25N59W 19N59W. rainshowers are possible from 20N northward from 50W westward. Fresh to strong southerly flow is setting up across the NW waters ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the NE Florida coast late tonight. The front will reach from 31N75W to 26N80W by early Mon morning, and extend from Bermuda to South Florida by early Tue before stalling then lifting north through mid week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT