000 AXNT20 KNHC 041756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will continue to support gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through mid week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 04N08W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 01S40W to 01S51W. Scattered moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ and within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A strong high pressure centered over the NW Atlc extends a ridge axis SW across most of the Florida Peninsula and into the SE Gulf, thus supporting moderate to fresh southerly flow. A cold front extends from the coast of Louisiana to Houston, Texas, however it lacks convection. Instead, dense fog advisories continue in effect for coastal areas from north Texas to southeast Louisiana through later this afternoon. Patchy sea fog is possible tonight into early Mon as the moist southerly flow reaches the cooler coastal waters off southwest Florida. A surface trough is ahead of the front extending from the Florida Panhandle to the north-central Gulf waters near 27N91W. Scattered showers are within 210 nm east of the trough axis N of 27N, including the Florida Panhandle and portions of NW Florida. Also, fresh to strong winds are in the NE gulf in the vicinity of the trough as indicated by latest scatterometer data. The front will move across the Florida Peninsula Monday through Monday night. However, the portion of the front over the Gulf will stall Monday afternoon before it lifts back north early Tuesday morning. Easterly flow will increase over the eastern Gulf late Mon into Tue as high pressure builds north of the area. Another somewhat stronger front will move into the northwest Gulf Wed afternoon. Strong winds and seas building 8 to 10 ft will follow the front mainly along the coast of Mexico through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds persist over the central Caribbean as shown by latest scatterometer data. Winds will continue to pulse to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. The aerial extent and the strength of the trades are forecast to increase east of the Leeward and Windward Islands, accompanied by NE to E swell in excess of 8 ft by early Mon, and over most of the east and central Caribbean on Tue as high pressure builds N of the area. Early on Wed, seas will build to 14 or 15 ft near the coast of Colombia. Winds have diminished to 20 kt or less in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage, but will increase to 20-25 kt on Mon night. Seas are forecast to build to to 8 ft in the Windward Passage by Tue night, and to 6-7 ft in the lee of Cuba by early Wed morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... With lack of support aloft, a stationary front continues to dissipate in the SW N Atlc along 30N59W SW to 26N73W. Besides this weak frontal boundary, surface ridging continues to build across the SW N Atlc. Ahead of the front, a surface trough along 28N57W to 18N59W continues to race westward, however lacking convection. The remainder central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of the Azores high centered by a 1040 mb high just north of the islands. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast late tonight, will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by early Tue before stalling near 30N59W to the southern Bahamas Wed morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos