000 AXNT20 KNHC 041037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 537 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will continue to support gale- force winds near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through mid week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W, to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W, to the Equator along 22W, to 03S30W, and 03S37W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N southward from 50W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extending along 25N from the Florida Keys to the central Gulf remains the focus of a few showers over the southeastern Gulf. Moist southerly flow is evident across the remainder of the Gulf, influenced by low pressure moving across the lower Mississippi Valley. A few showers are ongoing over the north central and northeast Gulf. Meanwhile, dense fog advisories are in effect for coastal areas from north Texas to southwest Louisiana through mid morning. Patchy sea fog is possible tonight into early Mon as the moist southerly flow reaches the cooler coastal waters off southwest Florida. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf tonight then stall, before lifting north and dissipating through late Mon. Easterly flow will increase over the eastern Gulf late Mon into Tue as high pressure builds north of the area. Another somewhat stronger front will move into the northwest Gulf Wed. Strong winds and seas building 8 to 10 ft will follow the front mainly along the coast of Mexico through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds persist over the eastern and central Caribbean this morning, supporting isolated fast moving showers as noted in the latest Caribbean radar mosaic display. In addition to the strong to gale force winds off Colombia, a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong northeast winds through the Windward Passage, and off the south coast of Hispaniola. Seas are likely 8 ft in these areas, with 5 to 7 ft in most other areas. This includes the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands, but buoy and altimeter satellite data farther east confirm the approach of higher seas, likely longer period NE to E swell. Seas to 8 ft will reach the Leeward Islands by late tonight, and the Windward Islands early Mon. Looking ahead, trade wind flow will increase and seas will build slightly across the Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic west of 55W by mid week as high pressure builds north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N55W to 26N70W then dissipating through 25N80W. Showers are likely along and to the north of the stationary boundary. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE to E flow north of the front, where 8 to 10 ft seas are observed. The front will dissipate through today as it lifts north of the area through late today followed by fresh to strong southerly flow. Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast late tonight will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by early Tue before stalling then lifting north through mid week. Farther east over the central Atlantic, a quasi-stationary surface trough remains along 54W/55W north of 20N. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are noted east of the trough, with 8 to 10 ft seas primarily in NE to E swell. No significant weather is noted other than typical isolated trade wind showers. Over the eastern Atlantic, no warnings are in effect from Meteo France at this time, but strong to near gale force NE winds persist from the coast of Morocco to the Cabo Verde Islands, with fresh to strong NE to E winds elsewhere north of 10N. Seas remain 8 to 11 ft. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen