000 AXNT20 KNHC 040005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will continue to support gale- force winds near the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W, mainly at night, through the weekend. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W, to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W, to the Equator along 25W, to 02S33W, and 03S41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N southward from 50W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A east-to-west oriented stationary front cuts through the central Gulf of Mexico, along 25N from 80W to 95W. A surface trough is within 60 nm of the coasts of Texas and Mexico from 25N to 29N. Precipitation: rainshowers span the entire area of the waters, and in the coastal plains from Texas to Florida, and in interior areas of south Florida, in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds. The current stationary front will lift northward through this evening. Weak low pressure, forming along the front in the NW Gulf, will move through the Carolinas, with a weakening cold front trailing in the northern Gulf. A reinforcing cold front will move into the Gulf late on Sunday, merge with the dying front, and then stall along 24N through late Monday. The front will lift N through Tuesday ahead of a stronger cold front, that is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Winds will continue to pulse to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected through tonight in the in the lee of Cuba, through the Windward Passage and in the lee of the Dominican Republic, including the Mona Passage. The aerial extent and the strength of the trades are forecast to increase across the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Mon, and over most of the east and central Caribbean on Tue as high pressure builds N of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N59W to 27N70W, across the NW Bahamas, to the Florida Keys, and beyond, into the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N49W to 18N59W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between 27W and 55W. A surface trough is along 54W/55W from 20N to 30N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 10N to 32N between 40W and 57W. The current cold front will stall along 26N/27N tonight, then lift N of the area late Sun ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida coast Sun night. The second cold front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by early Tue before stalling then lifting N through mid week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT