000 AXNT20 KNHC 031723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1223 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue supporting gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the weekend. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the following areas: AGADIR and TARFAYA. This forecast is valid until 03/1800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 06N12W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to the Equator along 20W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the ITCZ between 29W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from southwest Florida to 25N87W, then becomes stationary from that point to 20N97W. High pressure behind the front is supporting fresh east winds across the north central and northwest Gulf with seas to 8 ft. The winds and seas will subside as the high pressure shifts eastward and the front weakens through the weekend. Across the northwest Gulf waters, scatterometer data depicted a surface trough that extends from 28N94W to 25N95W. A weak low pressure is expected to develop in this area and move through the Carolinas, with a dissipating cold front trailing over the northern Gulf. A reinforcing cold front will move into the Gulf by late Sunday, merging with the dying front and stall along 24N through late Monday. The front will lift north through early next week ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move into the NW Gulf by Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Tranquil conditions continue across the region aided by very dry air in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere and surface high pressure. Only patches of low-level clouds and perhaps a few embedded showers exist across the area. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring across the bulk of the area, except for the south- central waters where winds to minimal gale force are continuing. No significant changes are expected across the area during the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N63W to 26N80W with no significant convection. An extensive surface ridge extends from a 1041 mb high in the northeast portion of the Atlantic Ocean across much of the Atlantic waters. Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 30N54W to 13N50W with isolated showers. The cold front will stall along 25N tonight. The front will lift north of the area late on Sunday, ahead of another cold front that will be moving off the northeast Florida coast on Sunday night. The second cold front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by early Tuesday, before stalling and then lifting N through the middle of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA