000 AXNT20 KNHC 030524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1224 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge that is in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will continue to support winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, mainly at night, during the weekend. The sea heights are forecast to be as high as 12 feet during this period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast sections of Liberia near 05N10W, to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W, to the Equator along 21W, and continuing to 04S35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 04N southward from 50W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front cuts across Florida near 28N82W, into the Gulf of Mexico, to a NW Gulf of Mexico 1022 mb low pressure center that is near 26N94W, beyond 22N98W along the coast of Mexico. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along 22N97W 18N94W. Rainshowers are possible across the Gulf waters, in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds. The current cold front will stall in the eastern Gulf on Saturday, and then lift northward as a warm front in the western Gulf through late Saturday. A weak low pressure center will develop along the front in the NW Gulf, and it will move through the Carolinas, with a dissipating cold front trailing across the northern Gulf. A reinforcing cold front will move into the Gulf late on Sunday. It will merge with the dying front, and then stall along 24N through late Monday. The front will lift N through Tuesday, ahead of a stronger cold front that is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 17N87W. One surface trough extends SE from the low center to 16N81W. A second surface trough extends SW from the low center to 15N89W in eastern Guatemala. Rainshowers are possible from 15N northward from 80W westward, in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds. Fresh-to-near gale-force winds NW of the coast of Colombia will increase, to minimal gale-force, late Saturday into early Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens, with pulsing during the subsequent nighttime hours. Mainly moderate-to-locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the basin, occasionally increasing to fresh-to-strong across the approach to the Windward Passage and in the lee of the Dominican Republic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N72W to Florida near 28N82W, and beyond, into the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N59W to 18N62W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between 42W and 60W. A surface trough is along 10N51W 26N51W 33N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 17N to 32N between 45W and 52W. rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of 08N58W 15N52W 20N49W. The current cold front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by early Saturday, and then stall along 25N on Saturday night. The front will lift N of the area late on Sunday, ahead of another cold front that will be moving off the NE Florida coast on Sunday night. The second cold front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by early Tuesday, before stalling and then lifting N through the middle of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT