000 AXNT20 KNHC 030005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge that is in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will continue to support winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W, mainly at night, during the weekend. The sea heights are forecast to be as high as 12 feet during this period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W, to the Equator along 27W, to the Equator along 40W, curving to 02S46W in Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N southward from 50W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front cuts across N Florida near 29N82W, into the Gulf of Mexico, to a NW Gulf of Mexico 1023 mb low pressure center that is near 26N94W, beyond 22N98W along the coast of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible across the Gulf waters, in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds. The current cold front will stall in the eastern Gulf on Saturday, and then lift northward as a warm front in the western Gulf through late Saturday. A new weak cold front will move into the N central and NE Gulf by Sunday afternoon, shifting SE of the area by early Monday. High pressure will dominate through Tuesday. It is possible that the next cold front may move into the NW Gulf on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to near gale force winds NW of the coast of Colombia will increase to minimal gale-force late on Saturday into early Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens, with pulsing during the subsequent nighttime hours. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the rest of the basin, occasionally increasing to fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage and in the lee of the Dominican Republic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N75W to N Florida near 29N82W, and beyond, into the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N59W to 20N68W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between 42W and 60W. A surface trough is along 50W/53W from 12N to 33N. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 20N to 30N between 44W and 52W. A cold front off the NE coast of Florida will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by early Sat, then stalling along 25N on Saturday night. The front will lift N of the area late Sun ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida coast Sun night. The second cold front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by early Tue before stalling then lifting N through mid week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT