000 AXNT20 KNHC 021725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1225 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge over the north Atlantic waters and lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to support winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the weekend. The sea heights are forecast to be as high as 11 ft during this period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 07N12W and continues over the Atlantic Ocean to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from there to 02N20W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 75 nmi on either side of the boundaries. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal system extends across the northern portion of the area, analyzed as a cold front from 30N85W to a weak 1021 mb low near 27N94W. A cold front extends from the low to the coast of Mexico near 26N97W. Abundant cloudiness prevails across the northern Gulf associated with this front. Mostly light to moderate southerly winds and fair conditions continue across the area south of the boundary, but moderate to strong northeasterly winds are occurring north of the front. The front is expected to stall from south-central Florida to the central Gulf by early Saturday before lifting northward as a warm front. Another cold front is forecast to move across Florida by Monday morning, bringing scattered showers with its passage. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Tranquil conditions continue across the region aided by very dry air in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere and surface high pressure. Only patches of low-level clouds and perhaps a few embedded showers exist across the area. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring across the bulk of the area, except for the south- central waters where winds to minimal gale force are continuing. No significant changes are expected across the area during the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An extensive surface ridge extends from a 1038 mb high in the northeast portion of the Atlantic Ocean across much of the southwestern Atlantic waters. Mostly fair weather continues over the western Atlantic, except near the coast of northern Florida where multi-layered clouds and embedded showers exist in the vicinity of a 1016 mb low and associated frontal boundary currently extending over South Carolina. Over the central Atlantic, a pair of surface troughs extend from 28N52W to 21N53W and from 21N48W to 14N50W. Scattered showers prevail within 75 nm to the east of these troughs. A cold front is beginning to move over the western Atlantic, and it is forecast to stall over the SW N Atlantic waters by Saturday night and dissipate Sunday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ JC/ERA