000 AXNT20 KNHC 021204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient between a ridge over the north Atlantic waters and lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to support winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia through the weekend. The sea heights are forecast to be as high as 14 ft during this peak winds period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 08N11W and continues over the Atlantic Ocean to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from there to 00N30W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 150 n mi either side of the ITCZ west of 27W. Similar activity exists within 60 n mi of the monsoon trough. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Mostly light southeast to south winds and fair conditions continue across the Gulf of Mexico. These conditions are supported by the western extension of a subtropical ridge, which is centered over the north-central Atlantic Ocean. Satellite data show generally dry conditions, except for patches of shallow moisture in the western half of the area. Along the northern half of the Gulf, disorganized cloudiness is streaming into the area in the mid- and upper- levels from the tropical east Pacific. Looking ahead, a cold front currently moving off the coast of Texas will move southeastward and then is expected to stall from south-central Florida to the central Gulf by early Saturday before lifting northward as a warm front. Another cold front is forecast to move across Florida by Monday morning, bringing scattered showers with its passage. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show stable dry air in the low, middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This dry air mass and surface high pressure is supporting fair weather. The only notable weather consist of patches of shallow moisture over the NW Caribbean, likely associated with the remnants of an old front. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring across the bulk of the area, except for the south-central waters where winds to minimal gale force are continuing. No significant changes are expected across the area during the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An extensive surface ridge extends from a 1038 mb high in the north-central Atantic across much of the southwestern Atlantic waters. Mostly fair weather continues over the western Atlantic, except near the coast of northern Florida where mufti-layered clouds and embedded showers exist. Over the central Atlantic, to the east of the front, a surface trough from 23N46W to 13N51W is producing scattered showers from N of 25N between 45W and 50W. Another surface trough is to the SE, extending from 22N43W to 14N50W. Scattered to isolated showers are within 90 n mi either side of its axis. The next cold front is expected to move over the western Atlantic by this afternoon, and then it will stall over the northern SW N Atlc Sat night and dissipate Sunday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramons/Cangialosi