000 AXNT20 KNHC 020556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A slightly tighter pressure gradient, between a surface ridge over the SW N Atlc waters, and lower surface pressure in northwest South America will support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia through Friday morning. The sea heights will range from 10 feet to 14 feet during this peak winds period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 07N12W and continues over the Atlantic Ocean to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from there to 01S35W to 01S50W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 150 nmi either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Mostly light to gentle southeast to south winds and fair conditions prevail across the Gulf of Mexico supported by the western extension of a subtropical ridge, which is centered over the north-central Atlantic Ocean. CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels show generally dry conditions, except for patches of shallow moisture in the western half of the basin. Along the northern half of the Gulf, disorganized cloudiness are being supported by mid to upper level moisture inflow from the tropical east Pacific waters. Sea heights in the region continue to be low. Texas adjacent waters are the highest with 4 ft. Looking ahead, a cold front is moving off the coast of Texas this morning. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are forecast to follow the front, affecting mainly the northern Gulf waters. This front is expected to stall near Sarasota, Florida and across the central Gulf early Saturday before lifting northward as a warm front across the western Gulf waters Saturday through Saturday night. A second cold front will move across Florida Monday morning, reaching South Florida Monday night. Scattered heavy showers are expected across the north-central and NE Gulf waters associated with the passage of the second cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. GOES-16 water vapor imagery continue to show stable dry air at the low, middle and upper levels, which is supporting fair weather. CIRA LPW imagery, however, show patches of shallow moisture over the NW Caribbean waters being associated with the former remnants of a front. Moderate to fresh winds are almost basin-wide, except for the south-central waters where strong to minimal-gale winds are along the coast of Colombia. No significant changes are expected across the area during the three to five days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad and elongated surface ridge extends from a 1037 mb high in the north-central Atlc waters SW to the SW N Atlc, across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mostly fair weather is in this region, except over NE Florida adjacent waters where multi-layered clouds may be supporting isolated showers. Ahead of the ridge, with lack of support aloft, a dissipating stationary front extends from 30N52W SW to 23N62W to the approaches of the Windward Passage. This frontal boundary lacks convection. Over the central Atlantic, to the east of the front, a surface trough from 28N50W to 20N52W is producing scattered showers from N of 25N between 45W and 50W. Another surface trough is to the SE, extending from 22N43W to 14N50W. Scattered to isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of its axis. The next cold front is expected to move over the western Atlantic by Friday afternoon, it will stall over the northern SW N Atlc Sat night and dissipate Sunday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos