000 AXNT20 KNHC 011706 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1206 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a strong surface high over the subtropical Atlantic waters and lower pressure over northwestern South America will support winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight. The sea heights should range from 10 to 15 feet during the next day or so. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia, Africa near 07N10W and continues over the Atlantic Ocean to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from there to 00N31W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 120 n mi either side of the ITCZ west of 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Mostly light southeast to south winds and fair conditions exist across the Gulf of Mexico today supported by the western extension of a subtropical ridge, which is centered over the Atlantic Ocean. There are no areas of deep convection noted in satellite images, and only disorganized cloudiness and perhaps a few showers exist north of 25N and west of 86W. Sea heights in the area are also low, except near the coast of Texas where buoys are reporting seas near 6 ft. Looking ahead, the global models suggest that a cold front will move over the northern waters by Friday morning, bringing fresh to strong northeasterly winds behind it. This front is expected to weaken, due to the lack of upper-level support, when it moves southward over the Gulf waters this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Fairly quiet conditions exist across the majority of the Caribbean Sea today supported by very dry air in the mid- and upper-level in the atmosphere. Only patches of low clouds and a few showers exist north of 16N between 75W and 85W associated with a weak surface trough and the remnants of an old front. Scatterometer and surface data indicate that fresh to strong trade winds are occurring across much of the area, strongest close to the coast of Colombia and near the Windward Passage. No significant changes are expected across the area during the next day or so. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A front is stationary across the western Atlantic, entering the discussion area near 32N49W and extending southwestward to the southeastern Bahamas. This front is weakening, and satellite images show only scattered clouds near the boundary. Surface high pressure is in control west of the front supporting fair weather with light to moderate winds. Over the central Atlantic, to the east of the front, a surface trough from 31N49W to 15N50W is producing scattered showers from 18N to 26N between 41W and 46W. Quiet conditions and fresh to strong trade winds exist over the eastern Atlantic due to the combination of surface high pressure and dry air aloft. The next cold front is expected to move over the western Atlantic by Friday afternoon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ JPC/ERA