000 AXNT20 KNHC 011152 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 652 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a strong surface ridge moving across the west Atlc waters and lower pressure over northwest South America, will support minimal gale-force winds pulsing at night near the coast of Colombia through tonight. The sea heights will range from 10 feet to 15 feet during the peak winds period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia, Africa near 06N10W and continues to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from there to 01N21W to 0N35W to 0N50W. Isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the monsoon and ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center located in the mid-Atlc waters near 32N73W SW across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A relaxed pressure gradient prevails in the basin, thus supporting generally light to moderate return flow ahead of the next cold front to move southeast off the northern Gulf coast Friday morning. The front will move across the southern Florida Peninsula Friday night to Saturday morning, however a great portion of the front across the Gulf will stall before lifting northward as a warm front across the western Gulf waters Saturday through Saturday night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will accompany the passage of this front. A second cold front will move across Florida Monday morning, reaching South Florida Monday night. Scattered heavy showers are expected across the north- central and NE Gulf waters associated with the passage of the second cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. The remnants of a shear line in the NW Caribbean are analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 20N84W to the Gulf of Honduras near 15N87W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either side of this boundary. Strong high pressure in the mid-Atlc extending to the SW N Atlc continue to support moderate to fresh NE winds off the lee of Cuba and in the Windward passage. Fresh to near gale-force winds are in the south-central basin, except for minimal gale winds off the coast of Colombia. Moderate trades are in the remainder eastern basin. GOES-16 imagery show dry and very stable conditions in the lower and middle levels, which is supporting fair weather. Otherwise, a cold front will stall across the Yucatan Channel on Monday night with possible showers and fresh to strong winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface ridge centered in the mid-Atlc waters extends south across the SW N Atlc. Ahead of the ridge, a stationary front extends from 31N53W to 24N61W to eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are possible in the vicinity of the boundary, however strong convection is not anticipated. In the central Atlc, a weak surface trough lack of convection extends from 26N47W to 18N53W. NE of this trough, a middle to upper level low continues to support scattered showers from 20N to 26N between 37W and 45W. The remainder eastern Atlc is under the influence of the Azores high anchored by a 1037 mb high just N of the islands. The cold front over the central Atlc is forecast to stall Thu while it continues to weaken. A second cold front will move southeast off the northeast Florida coast on Friday afternoon. The front will reach from 30N64W SW to the northern Bahamas Saturday morning. The front is forecast to stall late Saturday night from 30N61W to the northern Bahamas late Saturday night. A third cold front is forecast to be moving off the northeast Florida coast on Monday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ NR/ERA