000 AXNT20 KNHC 310005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A surface ridge building in the wake of a low pressure system centered in the NW Atlc and low surface pressure in northern sections of South America will support minimal gale-force winds pulsing at night near the coast of Colombia through Thu night. Expect sea heights to range from 10 feet to 13 feet during that period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 01N32W and 01N46W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong surface ridge extends southward from western Tennesee, across the Gulf to the NW Caribbean. A tight gradient between a low pressure system over the NW Atlc and the ridge continue to support N to NE fresh to strong winds across the eastern basin. Strong to near gale force NW to N winds are noted S of 21N W of 95W. Winds and seas are forecast to diminish from W to E across the Gulf region tonight. The ridge will shift E on Wednesday and Thursday, allowing SE return flow to set up across the entire basin by Thursday afternoon. The next cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf waters on Friday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. A cold front passes through central Cuba near 21N78W SW to the Gulf of Honduras near 15N86W. Scattered rainshowers are limited to the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the front. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia primarily late at night and into the early morning hours through Thursday night. The current cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras tonight, then will remain nearly stationary through Wednesday evening, and then dissipate on Thursday. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and building seas are expected NW of the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N69W, across the NW Bahamas and the southern part of Andros Island, and beyond Cuba near 22N80W, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of 29N69W 23N74W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the NW of the line that passes through 32N58W to 20N70W. A surface ridge passes through 32N57W to 26N61W, beyond the eastern part of the Dominican Republic. A deep layer occluded low pressure center is near 25N50W, 1012 mb. Expect fresh-to-strong winds within 330 nm NW quadrant of the 1012 mb low pressure center, and to the E of the line from 22N40W to 31N43W. The sea heights will range from 9 feet to 13 feet. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 22N to 30N between 39W and 43W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N northward between 38W and 53W. An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface ridge extends from a 1047 mb high pressure center that is near 41N27W, passing through 32N28W, to the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 29N13W between the coast of southern Morocco and the Canary Islands. The low pressure center is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours. The Meteo-France forecast calls for strong to near-gale winds in the areas of CASABLANCA and MADEIRA until 31/1200 UTC. The low is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours. The current cold front will reach from 24N65W to the easternmost tip of Cuba by Wednesday evening, where it will remain nearly stationary through Thursday evening. Fresh to strong NW-N winds will dominate the entire area that is to the west of the front, including the Old Bahama Channel by this evening. Similar marine conditions are expected early on Wednesday. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the region through Thursday. Another cold front is forecast to arrive in the northern waters on Friday afternoon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos