000 AXNT20 KNHC 301728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1228 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A surface ridge in the west-central Atlantic Ocean and low surface pressures in northern sections of South America are supporting minimal gale-force winds, that will pulse each night near the coast of Colombia. Expect sea heights to range from 10 feet to 13 feet. The winds will reach gale-force at night and last until dawn the next day, and then continue that way each night through Thursday night. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from 05N13W to 01N30W and 01N46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 06N southward from 50W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong surface ridge extends southward from southern Texas, along the coast of Mexico to a 1033 mb high pressure center that is near 21N98W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. One cold front has moved through the basin completely, and now it is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A second cold front now passes through the Florida Panhandle/the Florida Big Bend, into the N central Gulf of Mexico, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. This front is bringing a second shot of comparatively colder air. Strong to near gale force winds are expected in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near Veracruz, Mexico today. Winds and seas are forecast to diminish from W to E across the Gulf region this evening and tonight. The ridge will shift E on Wednesday and Thursday, allowing SE return flow to set up across the entire basin by Thursday afternoon. The next cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf waters on Friday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. A cold front passes through Cuba near 22N80W, to 20N84W, to the NW coastal sections of Honduras, and into central Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the NW Caribbean Sea to the NW of the line that runs from the southern coast of Cuba along 80W to eastern Honduras. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia primarily late at night and into the early morning hours through Thursday night. The current cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras this evening, then will remain nearly stationary through Wednesday evening, and then dissipate on Thursday. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and building seas are expected NW of the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N69W, across the NW Bahamas and the southern part of Andros Island, and beyond Cuba near 22N80W, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of 29N69W 23N74W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the NW of the line that passes through 32N58W to 20N70W. A surface ridge passes through 32N57W to 26N61W, beyond the eastern part of the Dominican Republic. A deep layer occluded low pressure center is near 25N50W, 1012 mb. Expect fresh-to-strong winds within 330 nm NW quadrant of the 1012 mb low pressure center, and to the E of the line from 22N40W to 31N43W. The sea heights will range from 9 feet to 13 feet. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 22N to 30N between 39W and 43W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N northward between 38W and 53W. An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface ridge extends from a 1047 mb high pressure center that is near 41N27W, passing through 32N28W, to the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 29N13W between the coast of southern Morocco and the Canary Islands. The low pressure center is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours. The Meteo-France forecast calls for strong to near-gale winds in the areas of CASABLANCA and MADEIRA until 31/1200 UTC. The low is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours. The current cold front will reach from 24N65W to the easternmost tip of Cuba by Wednesday evening, where it will remain nearly stationary through Thursday evening. Fresh to strong NW-N winds will dominate the entire area that is to the west of the front, including the Old Bahama Channel by this evening. Similar marine conditions are expected early on Wednesday. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the region through Thursday. Another cold front is forecast to arrive in the northern waters on Friday afternoon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt