000 AXNT20 KNHC 300002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N77W to the coast of Florida near Vero Beach. Scatterometer data at 1530 UTC showed gale force S-SW winds ahead of the front north of 29N and 25-30 kt winds elsewhere north of 28N east of the front to 75W. The area of gale force winds is expected to shift north of 31N and weaken tonight. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a surface ridge in the west-central Atlantic and lower pressure in South America is supporting minimal gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia, with seas in the 12 to 15 feet range. Expect winds to reach gale-force late tonight and early Tuesday, continuing possibly well into the weekend. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front reaches from southern Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula, and southeast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Cool dry air behind the front will support gale force winds off the coast of Veracruz tonight, south of 21N and west of 95W, with seas building to 10 to 13 ft. Winds and seas will diminish during the day on Tuesday as high pressure builds behind the front. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coast of Africa near 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 01S41W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers are from 07N southward from 49W eastward. Showers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details in reference to an upcoming gale-force wind event in the SW Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas, to the coast of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, covers the Gulf of Mexico from 28N northward from 90W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N southward, with the cold front. The current cold front will move SE of the area tonight. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf waters on Tuesday. A ridge will dominate the region through Thursday. The next cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. A cold front extends from southern Florida to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front will move into the NW Caribbean tonight, then stall from the Windward Passage to Honduras by mid week, bringing fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds to the NW Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Strong high pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds through much of the east-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Buoy and altimeter data indicate sea heights ranging from 8 to 12 feet in the area of strongest winds. The gradient will loosen across the region as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the cold front in the southern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds once again in much of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic west of 55W late in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about gale- force wind conditions in the western Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from 32N77W to the coast of Florida near Vero Beach, and across southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N47W in the central Atlantic Ocean. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 31N47W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 14N northward from 30W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N12W off the coast of Morocco. A surface ridge passes through 32N27W, to 25N28W, to 10N28W, about 620 nm to the west of Africa. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 30N12W, off the coast of Morocco. The Meteo-France forecast consists of strong breeze-to-near gale winds for the area of MADEIRA; moderate-to-fresh winds, and at times strong for IRVING and CASABLANCA. The 1016 mb low pressure center is forecast to drift southward during the next 24 hours. A strong surface ridge that extends southwest from the central Atlantic continues to dominate the forecast region. A deepening surface low passing near Cape Hatteras will drag a cold front across the NW waters tonight. The front will reach from 31N64W to eastern Cuba Tuesday night, and from 23N55W to the Windward Passage Wednesday night, then gradually weakening. High pressure behind the front will dominate the region through Thursday. Another cold front is forecast to reach the north waters Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell