000 AXNT20 KNHC 291744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1244 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warnings: A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 31N47W. A cold front curves away from the low center, to 32N40W, 26N40W, 20N46W, and to 18N59W. Expect gale-force winds N of 30N between 47W and 49W, and sea heights ranging from 15 feet to 20 feet. A surface ridge passes through 32N60W, to 27N65W, and to Hispaniola. The low pressure center is forecast to drift south of 30N this morning, and to continue moving southward, to 25N49W by Tuesday morning. The gale- force winds are forecast to diminish to less than gale- force late today as the low pressure center weakens. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details about this event. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a 32N60W-27N65W- Hispaniola surface ridge, and lower pressure in South America, is supporting minimal gale-force wind speeds near the coast of Colombia, with seas in the 12 to 15 feet range. Expect winds to reach gale-force primarily late at night and into the early morning hours through Tuesday, and possibly well into next week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details about this event. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning off Veracruz, Mexico : A cold front reaches from FLorida near 29N82W, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Colder and drier air behind the front will support winds to gale- force off the coast of Veracruz, starting tonight and ending on Tuesday after sunrise, to the south of 21N and to the west of 95W, with seas building to 10 to 13 feet. The wind speeds and sea heights will diminish to less than gale-force during the rest of the day on Tuesday, as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details about this event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W, to the Equator along 38W, to 01S41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N southward from 49W eastward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details in reference to an upcoming gale-force wind event in the SW Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas, to the coast of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, covers the Gulf of Mexico from 28N northward from 90W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N southward, with the cold front. The current cold front will move SE of the area this evening. Minimal gale-force winds are expected behind the front near Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon and tonight. Winds and seas are forecast to diminish from W to E across the Gulf waters on Tuesday. A ridge will dominate the region through Thursday. The next cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf waters on Friday. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. The southern part of a cold front passes through Florida near 29N82W, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that extends from SE Cuba to 16N85W along the coast of Honduras. The main driver through the short term will continue to be the strong high pressure north of the area, supporting the gale winds off Colombia, but also fresh to strong trade winds through much of the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Buoy and altimeter data were showing sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet in the area of strong winds. The gradient will loosen across the region as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the cold front that is sweeping across the Gulf of Mexico today, and which will move into the NW Caribbean Sea tonight. The front will stall from roughly the Windward Passage to central Honduras by mid week, bringing fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds to the northwest Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds once again in much of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean west of 55W late in the week. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 29/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.43 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.15 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.07 in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, 0.02 in Curacao, and 0.01 in Trinidad. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia, primarily late at night and into the early morning hours during the forecast period. The next cold front will reach the NW Caribbean this evening, then reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Tue evening, where it will remain nearly stationary on Wed. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and building seas are expected NW of the front. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about gale- force wind conditions in the western Atlantic Ocean, to the south of 22N, and developing gale-force wind conditions in the central Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center, that is near 33N78W, to Florida near 29N82W, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong are from 27N northward between 72W and 80W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N47W in the central Atlantic Ocean. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 31N47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 25N northward between 36W and 42W. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 27N northward between 45W and 50W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N to 30N between 40W and 50W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 14N northward from 30W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N12W off the coast of Morocco. A surface ridge passes through 32N27W, to 25N28W, to 10N28W, about 620 nm to the west of Africa. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 30N12W, off the coast of Morocco. The Meteo-France forecast consists of strong breeze-to-near gale winds for the area of MADEIRA; moderate-to- fresh winds, and at times strong for IRVING and CASABLANCA. The 1016 mb low pressure center is forecast to drift southward during the next 24 hours. A strong surface ridge, that extends from the central Atlantic Ocean southwestward, continues to dominate the forecast region. A deepening surface low passing near Cape Hatteras will drag a cold front across the NW waters today. The front will reach from near 31N73W SW across the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida tonight, from 31N64W to eastern Cuba by Tuesday night, and from 23N55W to the entrance of the Windward Passage by Wednesday night, while gradually weakening. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the region through Thursday. Another cold front is forecast to arrive in the north waters on Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT