000 AXNT20 KNHC 291204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warnings: A 1033 mb high pressure center is to the north of the area near 39N53W, and it is supporting sustained wind speeds to near gale force, to the south of 22N between 60W and 76W. A second area consists of : a tight pressure gradient persists between the high pressure and a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 32N45W. The low pressure center will drift south of 30N this morning. Wind speeds are reaching gale force within 240 nm of the western quadrant of the low pressure center, and will persist into the afternoon to the north of 29N between 49W and 52W, and then diminish late today as the low pressure center weakens. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details about this event. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a 1033 mb high pressure center that is in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in South America, is supporting minimal gale-force wind speeds near the coast of Colombia, with seas in the 12 to 15 feet range. Expect winds to gale-force primarily late at night and into the early morning hours through Tuesday, and possibly well into next week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details about this event. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning off Veracruz, Mexico : A cold front reaches from the Big Bend area of FLorida in the northeast Gulf to the far southwest Gulf near 18.5N93W. Colder and drier air behind the front will support winds to gale-force off the coast of Veracruz, starting later today and persisting through tonight, to the south of 21N and to the west of 95W, with seas building to 8 to 12 feet. The wind speeds and sea heights will diminish to less than gale-force through early Tuesday as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details about this event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N12W, to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W, to the Equator along 48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N southward from 50W eastward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details in reference to an upcoming gale-force wind event in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the front over the northwest Gulf. Fresh southeast winds are active over the Straits of Florida, but are starting to diminish from west to east ahead of the approaching front. A few showers are active over the far eastern Gulf ahead of an upper trough pivoting across the lower Mississippi Valley. These showers will shift east of the area tonight, and no significant convection is noted across the Gulf at this time. The low pressure over the western Florida Panhandle will strengthen and move toward the Carolina coast tonight dragging the cold front eastward across the remainder of the Gulf waters by late Monday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front allow winds and seas to diminish across the region although fresh easterly may persist across the Straits of Florida through mid week. Looking ahead, another front may enter the northern Gulf by late week, bringing another round of fresh northerly winds. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. The main driver through the short term will continue to be the strong high pressure north of the area, supporting the gale winds off Colombia, but also fresh to strong trade winds through much of the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Buoy and altimeter data show seas of 8 to 12 ft in the area of strong winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean. The gradient will loosen across the region as the high pressure shifts east ahead of a cold front sweeping across the Gulf of Mexico today and into the northwest Caribbean tonight. The front will stall from roughly the Windward Passage to central Honduras by mid week, bringing fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds to the northwest Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Looking ahead, high pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds once again over much of the central and eastern Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W late in the week. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about gale- force wind conditions in the western Atlantic Ocean, to the south of 22N, and developing gale-force wind conditions in the central Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong rainshowers are within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of 29N81W beyond 32N78W, off northeast Florida and the Gulf Stream ahead of an upper level trough that is digging across the southeastern United States. Fresh southerly winds are noted off northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas ahead of a surface low associated with the upper trough over the western Florida Panhandle and a related cold front entering the eastern Gulf. 1036 mb high pressure is centered north of the area near 37N57W, supporting a broad area of fresh winds east of the Bahamas, with 8 to 12 ft seas. The fresh southerly flow off northeast Florida will increase late today ahead of the cold front, which is expected to enter the Atlantic by late today. The front will reach from near 31N73W to the northwest Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Mon night, then from 31N64W to eastern Cuba by Tue night. Strong NW winds and building seas will follow the front. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N47W in the central Atlantic Ocean. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 32N45W. The 1011 mb low pressure center will enter the area this morning with an attendant frontal boundary and shear line reaching toward the Leeward Islands. A surface trough curves along 19N48W 16N50W 12N51W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of 23N42W 27N40W beyond 32N39W. The low pressure center and front will weaken substantially as they drift southward through mid week. Strong SE winds will persist east between the low pressure and strong high pressure to the northeast over Azores. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 14N northward from 30W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N12W off the coast of Morocco. A surface ridge passes through 32N28W, to 22N29W, to 10N30W, about 700 nm to the west of Africa. Fresh NE winds are off North Africa. These winds will increase across the Canary Islands by the middle of the week, as low pressure off Morocco drifts southwestward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT