000 AXNT20 KNHC 290947 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 447 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warnings: A 1033 mb high pressure area centered north of the area near 39N53W is supporting sustained winds to near gale force south of 22N between 60W and 76W. Also, a tight pressure gradient persists between the high pressure and a 1011 mb low pressure area centered near 32N45W. The low pressure will drift south of 30N early this morning. Winds are reaching gale force within 240 nm of the western quadrant of the low pressure, and will persist into the afternoon north of 29N between 49W and 52W, then diminish late today as the low pressure weakens. Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of 1036 mb high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over South America is supporting minimal gales near the coast of Colombia, with seas in the 12 to 15 ft range. Expect winds to gale-force primarily late at night and into the early morning hours through Tue, and possibly well into next week. Please see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on this event. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning off Veracruz: A cold front reaching from Big Bend area of FLorida in the northeast Gulf to far southwest Gulf near 18.5N93W. Colder and drier air behind the front will support winds to gale force off the coast of Veracruz starting later today and persisting through tonight, south of 21N and west of 95W, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft. Winds and seas will diminish below gale force through early Tue as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12N to 07N16W where it transitions to the intertropical convergence zone and continues to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 17W and 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details in reference to an upcoming gale event in the SW Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the front over the northwest Gulf. Fresh southeast winds are active over the Straits of Florida, but are starting to diminish from west to east ahead of the approaching front. A few showers are active over the far eastern Gulf ahead of an upper trough pivoting across the lower Mississippi Valley. These showers will shift east of the area tonight, and no significant convection is noted across the Gulf at this time. The low pressure over the western Florida Panhandle will strengthen and move toward the Carolina coast tonight dragging the cold front eastward across the remainder of the Gulf waters by late Monday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front allow winds and seas to diminish across the region although fresh easterly may persist across the Straits of Florida through mid week. Looking ahead, another front may enter the northern Gulf by late week, bringing another round of fresh northerly winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details regarding the gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. The main driver through the short term will continue to be the strong high pressure north of the area, supporting the gale winds off Colombia, but also fresh to strong trade winds through much of the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Buoy and altimeter data show seas of 8 to 12 ft in the area of strong winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean. The gradient will loosen across the region as the high pressure shifts east ahead of a cold front sweeping across the Gulf of Mexico today and into the northwest Caribbean tonight. The front will stall from roughly the Windward Passage to central Honduras by mid week, bringing fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds to the northwest Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Looking ahead, high pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds once again over much of the central and eastern Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W late in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about gale conditions western Atlantic south of 22N and developing gale conditions in central Atlantic. Scattered to numerous showers and few thunderstorms are active off northeast Florida and the Gulf Stream ahead of an upper trough digging across the southeastern United States. Fresh southerly winds are noted off northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas ahead of a surface low associated with the upper trough over the western Florida Panhandle and a related cold front entering the eastern Gulf. 1036 mb high pressure is centered north of the area near 37N57W, supporting a broad area of fresh winds east of the Bahamas, with 8 to 12 ft seas. The fresh southerly flow off northeast Florida will increase late today ahead of the cold front, which is expected to enter the Atlantic by late today. The front will reach from near 31N73W to the northwest Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Mon night, then from 31N64W to eastern Cuba by Tue night. Strong NW winds and building seas will follow the front. Farther east over the central Atlantic, well stacked deep-layer upper low and associated surface low centered near 31N45W will enter the area this morning with an attendant frontal boundary and shear line reaching toward the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted east of the low pressure and north of 25N. The low pressure and front will weaken substantially as they drift southward through mid week, but strong SE winds will persist east between the low pressure and strong high pressure to the northeast over Azores. Over the eastern Atlantic, strong ridging northeast of the Azores is supporting fresh NE winds off North Africa. These winds will increase over the Canary Islands by mid week as low pressure off Morocco drifts southwest. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen