000 AXNT20 KNHC 290003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient persists between a 1013 mb low pressure area centered near 33N43W and a 1036 mb high pressure area centered near 38N57W. The low pressure will drift south of 30N tonight, bringing winds to gale force into the waters north of 30N between 48W and 50W. Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of very strong high pressure centered over the NW Atlantic and lower pressure over South America is bringing near to minimal gale force NE to E winds near the coast of Colombia, with seas in the 12 to 15 ft range. Winds will increase to gale-force late at night and into the early morning hours through Tue, and possibly well into next week. Please see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on this event. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning off Veracruz: A weak 1017 mb low off the western Florida Panhandle will rapidly track northeast toward the Carolinas tonight, and push a cold front through the eastern waters into early on Mon. Strong high pressure ridging will surge southward in the wake of the front over the western waters of the gulf. A tight pressure gradient will set up in the far SW Gulf on Monday afternoon leading to strong gale force NW to N winds that will affect the waters S of about 21N and W of 95W to along the coast of Veracruz. These winds are expected to last into Tuesday morning, with seas building to the range of 8 to 12 ft. The strong ridge is then forecast to weaken through late Tuesday night, thus significantly diminishing the winds and seas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 05N09W to 06N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 03N28W to 02N41W to 01S51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 06W and 15W and from 05S to 04N between 26W and 49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details in reference to an upcoming gale event in the SW Gulf. A broad middle to upper level trough over the central U.S.A with base extending to the NW Gulf of Mexico waters supports a cold front that extends SW from a 1017 mb low off the Mississippi coast to 26N90W to near Tuxpan, Mexico. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are behind the front, except for strong northerlies in the vicinity of Tuxpan. Ahead of the front, a surface trough is in the eastern Bay of Campeche from 22N90W to 18N92W. A tight pressure gradient between the front and ridging to the E-NE continue to support fresh to strong SE-E winds ahead of the front, including the Straits of Florida. An upper level diffluent pattern E of 86W support scattered heavy showers in that region, including scattered showers in the Yucatan Channel. The latest forecast calls for the low to quickly track across the NE Gulf today, sending a cold front through the eastern waters into early on Mon. Strong high pressure ridging will surge southward in the wake of the front over the western waters of the gulf. Until this upcoming weather scenario is over, expect for scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail across much of the E gulf through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details regarding the gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail are occurring across the central and eastern basin with gale force winds developing at night near the coast of Colombia as described above under SPECIAL FEATURES. Scatterometer data show light to moderate trades in the NW basin, except for fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage. Diffluent flow aloft in the far E Gulf of Mexico support scattered showers in the Yucatan Channel. Low to middle level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show dry, stable conditions elsewhere. However, shallow moisture associated with the remnants of a cold front N of the area is supporting isolated showers over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue across the Windward Passage through early on Mon. Expect the continuation of showers in the NE Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and nearby islands through at least Mon as strong to near gale force NE winds with a shearline located just to the N acts to advect the moisture and shower activity towards that part of the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about gale conditions over a portion of the SW N Atlc between the Bahamas and a central Atlantic cold front. A cold front enters the discussion area at 30N41W to 21N49W, where it becomes a dissipating cold front to 20N52W and a shearline from there to just N of the coast of NW Puerto Rico. The shealine is advecting moisture associated with the front to Hispaniola and Puerto Rico northern adjacent waters. Over the far eastern Atlc, a ridge that extends from a 1040 mb high pressure system centered near 44N15W dominates the area E of the cold front maintaining rather stable weather. A cold front is expected to move offshore the SE United States coast on Mon, and reach from near 32N73W southwest across the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida on Mon night, then from 32N63W to eastern Cuba by Tue night. Strong NW winds and building seas will follow in the wake of this front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos/Christensen