000 AXNT20 KNHC 261727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1227 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The combination of a strong high pressure system off of the east coast of the United States and lower pressure over South America is resulting in winds occassionally reaching gale force near the coast of Colombia. These conditions are expected through the weekend as the weather patte rn persists. For more information, please see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 05N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00N38W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 60 n mi south and 180 n mi north of the ITCZ between 23W and 30W. Similar activity exists within 240 n mi south of the ITCZ west of 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Strong surface high pressure centered near the northeastern United States is supporting a large area of 20 to 25 kt winds over much of the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers exist near the Florida Straits due to the influence of a nearby stalled front. Similar activity is occurring over the western Gulf due to moist southwesterly upper-level flow and a surface trough near the coast of Mexico. Looking ahead to the weekend, strong winds are expected to continue over the eastern Gulf on Saturday. On Sunday, the pattern is expected to change as low pressure is predicted to take shape over the central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trades are occuring across much of the region, especially west of 70W due to the aformentioned strong high pressure system to the north of the area. The only area of notable shower activity lies over the far western Caribbean Sea close to the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. This activity is mainly associated with a surface trough, which was previously the southern extension of a frontal boundary. Since the surface pattern is expected to hold for much of the weekend, strong trade wind flow is forecast to continue during the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N54W and extends southwestward to 24N72W and then becomes stationary to central Cuba. Strong north to northeasterly winds cover much of the western Atlantic between the front and the strong high to its northwest. These winds are very near gale force in a few locations near the Bahama Islands, and seas are quite elevated over the western Atlantic as well. A line of clouds and embedded showers exist within 60 n mi either side of the front. Farther east, another strong 1041 mb surface high centered near 40N23W dominates the region. Although a large mid- to upper- level low exists over the central Atlantic, this feature is not producing any significant weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cangialosi