000 AXNT20 KNHC 260539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1239 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The combination of high pressure in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern Colombia, will support strong-to-minimal gale force easterly winds along and near the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours during the next few days, and into the upcoming weekend. The sea heights, in general, are expected to range from 9 feet to 14 feet within this area. Specifically, for the next 12 hours: Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to the Equator along 30W, and then continue along the Equator from 30W until 43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N southward between 23W and 30W, and from 05N southward between 46W and 51W. isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 06N southward from 52W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, from 23N96W to 17N92W inland in the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers from 25N southward from 90W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow, with high pressure, covers the Gulf of Mexico from 26N northward. Other precipitation: Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, in areas of broken low level clouds, from 25N southward from 90W eastward, and from 25N northward from 90W westward. Strong high pressure across the SE U.S.A. will maintain strong winds across the E half of the basin through Saturday. A surface trough across the SW Gulf off the Mexican coast will meander through Saturday, and then lift N as a warm front. A surface low pressure center will develop along the warm front near 29N88W on Sunday morning, and then race across the NE Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and drag a cold front across the E Gulf through Monday morning. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale-force winds expected off the coast of Colombia. A dissipating stationary front curves from NW Cuba toward NW Honduras. Small-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow remains in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, cover Central America from Nicaragua to Belize/the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Scattered to broken low level clouds are curving cyclonically from the Caribbean Sea toward Central America, from 80W westward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 16N to 18N between 85W and 90W, from the waters of the NW Caribbean Sea to Belize and the neighboring Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers elsewhere from 20N southward from 80W westward. Broken to overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere, from 15N to 20N between Puerto Rico and SE Cuba, and elsewhere from 80W eastward. Strong high pressure N of the region will maintain strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean Sea, from tonight through Sunday night, increasing to gale-force along the the NW coast of Colombia each night. Fresh to locally strong E-NE winds are forecast across the N Caribbean Sea Friday through Saturday. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters through Friday night, with strong NE winds forecast from Saturday through Sunday night. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N60W to 26N72W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from 26N72W to the Caribbean Sea coast of Cuba near 22N81W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 120 nm to 150 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N60W to 27N70W to 22N78W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N44W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 13N to 27N between 38W and 51W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N to 30N between 37W and 52W, with broken to overcast low level clouds. This feature is becoming comparatively weaker and weaker with time. A surface ridge extends from a 1041 mb high pressure center that is near 40N26W, to 34N41W, and through 30N45W to 28N55W. The frontal boundary will weaken and remain along 24N through Saturday night. Wind speeds ranging from 25 knots to 30 knots, and very large seas, are likely south of 25N from Friday through Sunday, as a strong high pressure center shifts eastward north of the area. The W part of the frontal boundary will lift N as a warm front on Sunday night. A deepening surface low pressure center moving across Florida into the Atlantic Ocean will drag a cold front across the NW waters on Sunday night and Monday, with the front reaching from 31N71W across the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida on Monday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT