000 AXNT20 KNHC 251726 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1226 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The combination of high pressure in the central and eastern Atlantic and lower surface pressures in northern Colombia will support the development of strong-to-minimal gale force easterly winds along and near the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours through Friday, and into the upcoming weekend. The sea heights are expected to be in the range of 9 feet to 14 feet within this area. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front has moved into the western Caribbean and a strong high pressure prevails in the wave if the front across the Gulf waters. A surface trough extends from 21N95W to 19N93W. The pressure gradient is still strong enough to support gale force winds south of 20.5N and west of the trough. Expect for these conditions to continue through the evening hours. Please read the the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01N29W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ boundary between 22W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the Gale Warning in effect for the southwest Gulf waters. A surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1035 mb high centered near 34N87W. To the southwest, a surface trough extends across the southern Bay of Campeche from 21N95W to 19N93W. Scattered showers are noted along the southern portion of the trough. The trough will meander across the southwest Gulf waters through Saturday. A surface low is expected to develop in this area this weekend, moving northeast with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale-force winds expected off the coast of Colombia. A cold front has entered the west Caribbean waters, extending from 22N84W to 18N88W. Scattered showers prevail across the remainder of the basin transported by moderate to fresh trades. Strong to minimal gale-force trade winds are forecast along the the northwest coast of Colombia during the overnight hours through the weekend. The front will stall from Central Cuba to Belize and gradually dissipate by Friday. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will produce fresh to locally strong northeast winds across the northwest Caribbean by late today, with strong to near-gale force northeast flow spreading across the northeast Caribbean through Saturday. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the area through Sunday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N66W to 23N80W. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm on either side of the front. To the east, a surface trough extends from 28N63W to 22N65W. Another trough extends from 23N45W to 16N48W. Scattered showers prevail along the second trough. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1040 mb high centered near 40N29W. The cold front will continue moving southeast, stalling from 24N65W to northwest Cuba on Friday evening, then dissipating between 20N and 23N by Saturday night. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA