000 AXNT20 KNHC 250605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern Colombia will bring pulses of strong-to-minimal gale force NE to E winds along and near the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours, from today through Friday, and possibly for more time, into the upcoming weekend. The sea heights are expected to be in the range of 9 feet to 14 feet with the winds. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: COLD FRONT FROM 25N80W TO 23N86W, THEN STATIONARY TO 20.5N95W TO 18N93W. S OF 21N W OF FRONT NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. The surface pressure gradient in the far SW Gulf along the coast of Mexico in the vicinity of Veracruz has become tighter, as the surface ridge that extends from strong high pressure centered in eastern Texas presses southward along eastern Mexico and toward the SW Gulf of Mexico. the tight pressure gradient from the building ridge will maintain the northerly gale wind conditions into Thursday, before diminishing to N-to-NE fresh winds. Please read the the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 05N10W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W, to 01N23W, and to the Equator along 35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 52W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the cold front/stationary front, and the associated gale-force northerly winds. A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb Texas 31N97W mb high pressure center, through the Deep South of Texas, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 18N93W to 21N95W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are spread across the Gulf of Mexico, in areas of broken low level clouds. A stationary front from 25N80W to 21N93W will dissipate through Thursday night. A trough will meander across the SW Gulf waters from 22N96W to 18N93W through Saturday. The trough will lift N as a warm front on Saturday night, with a surface low developing along the front near 27N92W. The low will move NE on Sunday, passing across the Florida Big Bend on Sunday night, and drag a cold front across the Eastern Gulf waters by sunrise on Monday. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale-force winds for the area that is off the coast of Colombia. Precipitation: Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 17N to 25N between 64W and 68W, from the waters that are just to the south of Puerto Rico into the Atlantic Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N northward from 80W westward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 80W eastward, in areas of broken low level clouds. Strong to minimal gale force trade winds are forecast along the the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours through Monday night. A slowly-moving cold front will stall on Thursday, from Central Cuba to Belize and gradually dissipate through Friday. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will produce fresh to locally strong NE winds across the NW Caribbean by late Thursday, with strong to near gale force NE flow spreading E across the NE Caribbean on Friday night through Saturday. Conditions will improve across the Caribbean Sea from the NW beginning late Saturday night. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters E of the Windwards through Friday night, with strong NE winds forecast from Saturday through Sunday night. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N68W, and southwestward to 26N77W. The front becomes stationary at 26N77W, and it continues from the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to 21N93W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N62W to 26N70W to 20N70W, in the Atlantic Ocean, and across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N to 30N between 38W and 50W, with an upper level trough. One surface trough is along 49W/50W from 18N to 26N. A second surface trough is along 62W/63W from 23N to 31N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 18N to 25N between 44W and 50W. A cold front extends SW from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas, and then it becomes stationary across the Straits of Florida. The cold front segment will continue SE, stalling from 24N65W to NW Cuba on Friday evening, with remnants of the front gradually dissipating between 20N and 23N through Saturday night. The W part of the front will lift N as a warm front across the Straits of Florida on Sunday night. The western part of the front will be ahead of a surface low, that is racing NE off the NE Florida coast and dragging a cold front E across the Straits of Florida on Monday, reaching the Central Bahamas late Monday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT