000 AXNT20 KNHC 230600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressures over northern Colombia will allow trades in the SW Caribbean near the coast of Colombia to reach minimal gale force overnight then subside back to strong by noon Tuesday. Seas are expected to build to 10-13 ft in this area. Winds are expected to pulse back to gale force again late Tue night into Wed morning. Model guidance indicates that the pulsing to minimal gale will continue each night through the weekend. Please see latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds are forecast to commence Tue afternoon in the SW Gulf behind a cold front that is across the western Gulf. The cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue morning, from the Straits of Florida across the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz Mexico Tue night, then move SE of the area on Wed. Minimal gale force NW to N winds are likely near the coast of Veracruz Tue afternoon, then diminish slightly Tue night. Gale force winds may return briefly to the same area Wed night, then diminish significantly on Thu. Please see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from Africa near 06N10W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues WSW from 04N17W to cross the equator near 31W. Isolated convection is south of 03N between 25W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Mobile, Alabama to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are along a squall line just ahead of the front from the Florida panhandle to 26N90W. Conditions rapidly dry out behind the front in strong high pressure centered over Texas. The cold front will reach the far SE Gulf waters on Tue night, and move to SE of the area on Wed. The pressure gradient associated with the high over Texas will support fresh to strong northerly winds over much of the Gulf through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Diffluence aloft supports isolated showers over portions of the SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong east winds are noted in the latest scatterometer data over much of the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere across the basin. The pressure gradient associated with high pressure north of the area should support fresh to strong NE to E trades W of about 70W elsewhere through late Wed night. Strong NE winds are expected through the Windward Passage after Wed. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will enter the NW Caribbean Wed night, followed by increasing strong NE winds and seas building to around 10 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging dominates the western Atlantic, with a ridge extending westward into northern Florida. A robust mid/upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery extending from a cyclonic circulation near 31N58W to Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are north of 23N between 52W and 60W. A weak stationary front is located over the central Atlantic from near 31N39W to 23N47W. Expect organized shower activity to expand eastward through Wed ahead of the trough to 45W. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast on Tue afternoon, and reach from near 31N73W to Straits of Florida on Wed morning, and from Bermuda to central Cuba on Thu morning. Strong NE winds under high pressure will follow behind the front. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds will precede the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell