000 AXNT20 KNHC 221203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: A gale warning will become in effect in 36 hours for the SW Gulf in the wake of the next cold front that will move off the Texas coast around 12 UTC this morning. The cold front will reach from the Mississippi Delta region to Veracruz by early this evening before becoming stationary from the Straits of Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Tue night. The front is forecast to linger across that general area through Thu. Minimal gale force NW to N winds of 25 to 35 kt are forecast for the extreme SW Gulf S of 21N W of 94.5W beginning at 18 UTC on Tue, then diminish to strong winds late Tue night. The gale force winds are expected to return briefly to the same area on Wed night. The front will weaken Wed night through Thu. Please see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The African monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean near 07N10W and continues to 01N20W. The ITCZ begins near 01N20W and extends to 03N31W to coast of S America at 01N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 33W-37W, and within 60 nm N of the axis between 26W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high located near 33N85W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Scattered showers are moving across the northwest Gulf ahead of a cold front that is currently moving through eastern Texas, and quickly approaching the coast. Dense fog has formed ahead of the front over some portions of the NW Gulf, north of about 25N and west of 93W. Caution must be exercised transiting in this area. The front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf by Monday morning, then it will extend from Dixie, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tuesday morning, and from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen over portions of the NW Caribbean assisted by diffluence aloft. Fresh to strong winds were noted in the latest scatterometer data over much of the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds being along the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in the elsewhere across the basin. Persistent ridging north of the area will allow for strong to near-gale force trades to pulse along the northwest coast of Colombia through the week. The tail end of a cold front is forecast to reach the northwest Caribbean waters by late Wednesday night. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds will prevail across the northwest Caribbean waters through the week as the front continues moving the west Atlantic waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging dominates the west Atlantic anchored by a pair of 1025 mb high pressure centers located near 32N75W and 29N70W. Diffluence aloft on the east side of a mid to upper trough over the Florida Peninsula is supporting scattered showers across the Bahamas from 21N-27N between 72W-78W. At the surface, a trough accompanies this convection extending from 27N74W to 23N73W. To the east, a stationary front extends across the east-central Atlantic from 31N39W to 24N45W to 22N58W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm to the east of the front mainly north 21N. A 1035 mb high pressure centered over southwest Portugal adjacent waters extends a ridge over the eastern Atlantic region north of 20N. The high pressure over the west Atlantic will shift east to just southwest of Bermuda through the next 24 hours, then shift north of Bermuda Monday night allowing a cold front to move off the northeast Florida coast by Tuesday afternoon. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to Straits of Florida Wednesday night and from 27N65W to Central Cuba on Thursday night. Convection and gusty winds will accompany this front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/Aguirre