000 AXNT20 KNHC 220528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1228 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The African monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 07N13W and continues to 01N22W. The ITCZ begins near 01N22W and extends to 01N49W. Scattered showers are noted within 50 nm north of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high located near 33N85W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Scattered showers are moving across the northwest Gulf ahead of a cold front that is currently located over central Texas/northern Mexico. With this, dense fog is expected to develop towards the morning hours in the northwest Gulf waters mainly north of 25N and west of 93W. Caution must be exercised transiting in this area. The front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf by Monday morning, then it will extend from Dixie, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tuesday morning, and from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Clusters of showers are ongoing across the northwest Caribbean, related to diffluence aloft at the base a sharp mid to upper trough extending from the SE CONUS into the eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are noted in latest scatterometer data over much of the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds being along the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in the elsewhere across the basin. Persistent ridging north of the area will allow for strong to near-gale force trades to pulse along the northwest coast of Colombia through the week. The tail end of a cold front is forecast to reach the northwest Caribbean waters by late Wednesday night. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds will prevail across the northwest Caribbean waters through the week as the front continues moving the west Atlantic waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging dominates the west Atlantic anchored by a pair of 1025 mb high pressure centered located near 32N75W and 29N70W. Diffluence aloft on the east side of a mid to upper trough over the Florida Peninsula is supporting scattered showers across the Bahamas from 21N-27N between 72W-78W. At the surface, a trough accompanies this convection extending from 27N74W to 23N73W. To the east, a stationary front extends across the east-central Atlantic from 31N39W to 24N45W to 22N58W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm to the east of the front mainly north 21N. A 1035 mb high pressure centered over SW Portugal adjacent waters extends a ridge over the eastern Atlantic region north of 20N. The high pressure over the west Atlantic will shift east to just southwest of Bermuda through the next 24 hours, then shift north of Bermuda Mon night allowing a cold front to move off the northeast Florida coast by Tuesday afternoon. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to Straits of Florida Wednesday night and from 27N65W to Central Cuba on Thursday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA