000 AXNT20 KNHC 211205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Broad strong high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico is creating a gradient tight enough to support winds to gale force off the coast of Colombia through later this morning. However, strong to near gale-force winds will remain through Monday. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N11W and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ begins near 04N20W and extends to 03N37W to 0N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ and within 210 nm S of it. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging extends across the SW N Atlantic, across Florida and into the Gulf. Fresh southeast return flow is observed over the northwest Gulf between the ridge and lower pressure over the central Plains. Fresh easterlies are also noted over the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere moderate east to southeast winds persist across the northern Gulf, with lighter flow over the southwest Gulf. A mid-level short-wave trough over the SE CONUS extending across the E Gulf and ridging over the Caribbean continue to support diffluent flow over the NW Caribbean and into portions of the SE Gulf. This environment aloft along with shallow moisture is supporting isolated showers in the Yucatan channel and Florida Straits. Patch fog is being reported off the central coast of Louisiana, but otherwise visibility remains good. The moderate to fresh SE winds will continue across the western Gulf through this evening ahead of a cold front moving southeast off the Texas coast around sunrise on Mon. The cold front will extend from the mouth of the Mississippi to Veracruz Mexico late Mon, and then stall from southwest Florida to near Veracruz Mexico on Tue night. Remnants of the front will lift N on Wed and Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the northwest Caribbean, related to divergence aloft at the base a sharp upper trough extending from the SE CONUS into the E Gulf. Fresh to near gale-force trade winds are noted in latest scatterometer data and buoy observations over much of the central Caribbean, lee of Cuba and Windward Passage with the strongest winds being along the coast of Colombia. Seas are reaching 10 to 14 ft over the south central Caribbean with highest seas off Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern Caribbean and east of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Persistent ridging north of the area will allow strong to near gale force trades to pulse along the northwest coast of Colombia through Thu night. Strong east winds are forecast across the Central Caribbean waters on Sun, diminishing slightly on Mon as the ridge weakens. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the tropical Atlc waters E of the Windwards through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging extends along roughly 30N, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure area centered near 30N68W. Divergence aloft on the east side of an upper trough over the E Gulf of Mexico is supporting a few showers off the Florida coast and across the northern and central Bahamas. A cold front reaches from 30N41W to 21N62W. A recent scatterometer pass showed fresh trade winds across the Turks/Caicos and southern Bahamas, along the dissipating stationary front trailing the end of the cold front. Scattered showers are noted N of 22N between 33W and 46W. Farther east, 1035 mb high pressure is centered SW of Portugal, with an associated ridge extending over the region north of 20N, supporting fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of North Africa between the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde. Farther south, moderate to fresh trade persist across the deep tropics. The High pressure will shift east to just southwest of Bermuda through Mon, then shift north of Bermuda Mon night allowing a cold front to move off the northeast Florida coast Tue morning. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to Straits of Florida Wed night and from 27N65W to Central Cuba on Thu night. Strengthening high pres in the wake of the front will support strong NE wind W of 73W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos