000 AXNT20 KNHC 180531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1231 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf region. The front extends from a 1014 mb low pressure centered near 33N77W and continues southwest across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico to near 26N82W to 22N91W to 19N92W. Gale-force winds are occurring to the west of the front mainly south of 21N and west of 94W. Seas of 12-16 ft will prevail within the area of gale-force winds. The front will continue moving southeast across the southern portion of the basin through the night, with winds weakening below warning criteria at 0600 UTC. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... The low pressure currently located east of the South Carolina's coast will continue moving eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean while deepening. This will induce an area of gale-force winds today mainly north of 30N and behind the strong cold front that is currently moving across the west Atlantic along and west of 76W. The front will extend from 31N69W to eastern Cuba today, then weaken southeast of the Bahamas from 24N65W to the Windward Passage on Friday. Strong high pressure behind the front will bring strong winds and high seas tot he area northeast of the Bahamas through tonight. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 07N11W to 03N18W. The ITCZ begins near 03N18W to 00N34W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within about 120 nm on either side of the monsoon trough, while scattered showers prevail within 50 nm to the north of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf region. See the Special Features section for more details. A surface ridge dominates the majority of the basin in the wake of the front. Aside from the area with gale-force winds, scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the basin. Winds will slightly weaken as the front and pressure gradient relaxes across the basin through through the next 24 hours. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will set-up again across the western Gulf and persist early this weekend ahead on the next cold front forecast to reach the Texas coast by Sunday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The remnants of a stationary front were analyzed as a surface trough that extends across the western Caribbean from 19N85W to 12N82W. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms are noted west of 80W with this trough affecting the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Patches of low-level moisture carried by the trade wind flow are seen across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea inducing showers. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are seen in the lee of Cuba, and within about 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds are near the coast of Colombia. The cold front currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the northwest Caribbean this morning, then extend from central Cuba to Honduras by tonight. Fresh to strong winds and widespread showers are expected behind the front. Strong trade winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia coast on Friday night and then expand across much of the central Caribbean over the weekend as high pressure builds north of the area. ...HISPANIOLA... Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will prevail for the next day or so over the island due to the influence of a ridge. Computer models show an increasing of moisture across Hispaniola toward the end of the work-week as a cold front approaches from the west. Fresh northeast winds are expected across the Windward Passage today through Saturday night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic in the wake of the above mentioned front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front is moving across the west Atlantic from 31N77W to 28N80W. See the Special Features section for more details about this front and the Gale Warning in effect. To the east, a forming cold front has developed extending from a 1014 mb surface low near 34N73W to 24N75W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of these features mainly west of 70W. A surface trough extends from 30N65W to 25N65W with minimal convection at this time. An upper-level low is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends from 31N50W to a 1021 mb low near 28N47W to 21N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 36W- 46W. The strong high pressure near Azores dominates most of the east and central Atlantic, and will move little through this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA