000 AXNT20 KNHC 171556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1056 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf region. As of 1200 UTC, the front extends from a 1023 mb low pressure over South Carolina across northern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico to near 24N90W to Veracruz, Mexico. Gale force winds are occuring west of the front S of 26N based on latest scatterometer pass. A recent altimeter pass indicates seas of 16-18 ft within the area of gale force winds. The front will move south of the basin tonight. Gale force winds are expected west of the front along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz through tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected elsewhere behind the front through tonight. High pressure behind the front will slowly shift eastward along the US Gulf coast through Friday. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... The low pressure currently located over South Carolina will move ENE into the western Atlantic Ocean while deepening. This will induce a band of gale force winds north of 30N on Thursday behind the strong cold front that will extend from 31N69W to eastern Cuba on Thu, then weaken SE of the Bahamas from 24N65W to the Windward Passage on Fri. Strong high pressure behind the front will bring strong winds and high seas NE of the Bahamas Wed through Thu night. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Sierra Leone, Africa and continues to 01N21W. The ITCZ extends from 01N21W to 02N40W to the Equator at 50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 30W-40W. Similar convection is from 03N-04.5N between 42W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf region. See the Special Features section for more details. A band of multi-layer clouds with embedded showers is associated with the front. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will set-up across the western Gulf by Fri, and persist on Saturday ahead on the next cold front forecast to reach the Texas coast Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front remains across the basin extending from eastern Cuba to the SW Caribbean near 11N83W. 20N78W to 12N83W. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted within about 180 nm west of the front from 15N-21N. Similar convective activity is between the front and the coast of Nicaragua. Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are seen across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea east of the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front, and moderate to fresh trade winds east of the frontal boundary, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. The front will dissipate later today. Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will drift westward today, keeping showers possible over Central America and the northwest Caribbean. Strong winds will pulse near the northwest Colombia coast each night through Saturday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will prevail for the next couple of days over the island due to the influence of a ridge. Computer models show increasing moisture across the island toward the end of the work-week as a cold front approaches from the west. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the Atlantic from just E of Bermuda to eastern Cuba. this front will dissipate later today. A strong cold front will move off Florida this afternoon, extend from 31N69W to eastern Cuba on Thu, then stall SE of the Bahamas from 24N65W to the Windward Passage on Fri. Strong high pressure behind the front will bring strong winds and high seas NE of the Bahamas today through Thu night. An area of low pressure deepening north of the area near Bermuda is expected to induce an band of gale force winds in far northern waters N of 30N on Thursday. See Special Features section. An upper- level low is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends from 31N44W to 22N45W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough between 40W-46W. The trough will drift westward over the next 24 hours. Strong high pressure of 1038 mb is located near Azores at 40N25W dominating the remainder of the basin. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR