000 AXNT20 KNHC 170559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1259 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong arctic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico. The front extends from near 30N86W to 26N91W to 21N97W. Cold arctic offshore northerly flow behind the front is bringing near gale-force winds with frequent gusts to gale-force over the northwest Gulf tonight, and gale-force northerly winds are expected near Tampico and Veracruz through early Wednesday. A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf waters. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 05N09W to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm of the ITCZ between 31W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong arctic cold front has moved over the northwest Gulf. See the Special Features section for more details. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters, and will shift eastward and weaken overnight. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are noted over the southeast waters and the Straits of Florida per scatterometer data while mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere ahead of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front remains across the western portion of the basin extending from 20N78W to 12N83W. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted in the vicinity of the front mainly west of 80W affecting Central America and central and western Cuba. Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are seen across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea east of the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front, and moderate to fresh trade winds east of the frontal boundary, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. The front will weaken and dissipate by this morning. Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will drift westward today, keeping showers possible over Central America and the northwest Caribbean. Strong winds will pulse near the northwest Colombia coast each night through Saturday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will prevail for the next couple of days over the island due to the influence of a ridge. A surface trough passing north of Puerto Rico will produce little convection. Computer models show increasing moisture across the island toward the end of the work-week as a cold front approaches from the west. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N65W to 22N77W. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are noted in the wake of the front. These winds will gradually diminish tonight as the front weakens. To the east, a weak 1018 mb low is centered near 27N65W with a trough extending from it to 32N61W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of these features. Scattered moderate convection has developed to the north of 27N between 57W- 62W ahead of a cold front to the north of the area. An upper- level low is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends from 31N45W to 24N45W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough between 40W-46W. The trough will drift westward over the next 24 hours. Strong high pressure of 1039 mb is located near Azores at 41N28W dominating the remainder of the basin. A strong cold front will move off the southeast United States coast today, then weaken as it reaches from near 24N65W to the Windward Passage by Friday morning. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring strong northerly winds and building seas over the northern of the Bahamas on Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA