000 AXNT20 KNHC 162356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 655 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong arctic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico. As of 2100 UTC, the front extends from near 30N87W to 25N98W. Gusty winds to gale-force are noted behind the front along the coast of Texas and coastal waters. The front will quickly move southeast exiting the area early on Wednesday. Cold arctic offshore northerly flow behind the front will bring near gale- force winds with frequent gusts to gale-force over the northwest Gulf tonight, and gale-force northerly winds near Tampico and Veracruz tonight through early on Wed. A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf waters while many winter storm warnings have been issued along the northern Gulf states. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N10W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00N32W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm of the ITCZ between 35W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong arctic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf. See the Special Features section for more details. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters, and will shift eastward and weaken tonight. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are noted over the southeast waters and the Straits of Florida per scatterometer data while mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere ahead of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front remains across the western portion of the basin extending from 20N78W to 12N83W. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted along and west of the front affecting Central America and central and western Cuba. Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are seen across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea east of the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front, and moderate to fresh trade winds east of the frontal boundary, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. The front will weaken and dissipate by tomorrow morning. Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will drift westward on Wednesday, keeping showers possible over Central America and the northwest Caribbean. Strong north winds along the coast of Nicaragua will slowly diminish to moderate this evening through Fri night. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through Saturday night. Large northeast swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlantic waters this evening. ...HISPANIOLA... Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will prevail for the next couple of days over the island due to the influence of a ridge. A surface trough passing north of Puerto Rico will produce little convection. Computer models show increasing moisture across the island toward the end of the work week as a cold front approaches from the west. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N67W to 22N77W. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are still noted in the wake of the front. These winds will gradually diminish today as the front begins to weaken. To the east, a weak 1018 mb low is centered near 27N65W with a trough extending from it to 31N64W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of these features. Scattered moderate convection has developed to the north of 27N between 57W-63W ahead of a cold front to the north of the area. An upper level low is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends from 31N44W to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough between 39W-45W. The trough will drift westward over the next 24 hours while the strong high pressure will move eastward. Strong high pressure of 1038 mb located near Azores at 40N30W dominates the remainder of the ocean to Africa. A strong cold front will move off the southeast United States coast on Wednesday, then weaken as it reaches from near 24N65W to the Windward Passage by Friday morning. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring strong northerly winds and building seas over the northern of the Bahamas on Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA