000 AXNT20 KNHC 161736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1236 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong artic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf. As of 1500 UTC, the front extends from near Mobile, Alabama to just south of Brownsville, Texas, and continues across the northern mexican states. Gusty winds to gale force are noted behind the front along the coast of Texas and coastal waters. The front will quickly reach from the Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico, Mexico this evening, then move SE of the area early on Wed. Cold artic offshore northerly flow behind the front will bring near gale force winds, with frequent gusts to gale force over the NW Gulf today and tonight, and gale force NW to N winds near Tampico and Veracruz tonight through early on Wed. A gale warning is in effect for the western Gulf waters while many winter storm warnings have been issued along the N Gulf states. Wintry mix is forecast for central and southern Texas into Louisiana and the central Gulf coast today. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Liberia, Africa and continues to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 02N30W to 01N35W to 02N45W to the Equator at 50W into NE Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is N of the Equator to the coast of Africa between the Prime Meridian and 07W. Similar convection is noted from 00N-05N between 35W and 45W, and from 02N-05N between 48W and 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong artic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf. See Special Features section for more details. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters, and will shift eastward and weaken through tonight. Visible satellite imagery shows the frontal boundary over the NW Gulf, and cold air stratocumulus clouds across the remainder of the area, with persistent low clouds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted over the SE waters and the Straits of Florida per scatterometer data with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere ahead of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front remains across the basin, and extends from Camaguey, Cuba to 18N80W to the SW Caribbean near 12N83W. An area of scattered showers and tstms are noted near the southern end of the front. Cold air stratocumulus clouds and some transverse high clouds are observed behind the front over the NW Caribbean while patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are seen across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea E of the front. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front, and moderate to fresh trade winds east of the frontal boundary, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. The front will weaken and dissipate by Wed morning. Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will drif westward on Wednesday, increasing the likelihood of showers over Central America and the NW Caribbean. Strong N winds along the coast of Nicaragua will slowly diminish to moderate this evening through Fri night. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through Sat night. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlantic waters until this evening. ...HISPANIOLA... Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will prevail for the next couple of days under the influence of a ridge. A surface trough passing N of Puerto Rico will produce little convection. Computer model shows increasing moisture across the island toward the end of the work week as a cold front approaches from the west. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N66W to 25N72W where it becomes stationary, then continues across the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are still noted in the wake of the front. These winds will gradually diminish today as the front begins to weaken. A band of low-topped showers is over the central Bahamas and central Cuba just behind the frontal boundary. A strong cold front will move off the SE United States coast on Wed, then weaken as it reaches from near 24N65W to the Windward Passage by Fri morning. Strong high pres in the wake of the front will bring strong N to NE winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas on Thursday. Strong high pressure of 1042 mb located near Azores at 40N32W dominates the remainder of the ocean to Africa. Scatterometer data indicates a large area of fresh to strong trades roughly north of 15N between 20W-60W. A surface trough associated with an upper- level low extends along 64W/65W N of 24N. A weak low pressure of 1018 mb has developed along the trough axis. Another surface trough is SE of an upper-level low centered near 29N45W. This system is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms, mainly N of 25N between 40W-46W. This trough will drift westward over the next 24 hours while the strong high pressure will move eastward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR